Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + 3D Fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP 3D Fighter?

PvP + 3D Fighter

Of 131 developers who shipped a PvP 3D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 288 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 288 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper, while revenue is down 35% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 288 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + 3D Fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 131
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $358 → $1.3k → $899 → $807 → $1.2k → $449 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + 3D Fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 131
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $2.8k (exactly $2,781)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,376,770)
Developers, 2 yr 131
Released games 495
Announced 288
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 34%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, 3D Fighter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Multiplayer, Fighting
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 94,161 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.7k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 96 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 288 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO 2024 · $76M Chivalry 2 2022 · $56M TEKKEN 8 2024 · $55M Party Animals 2023 · $34M Gang Beasts 2017 · $33M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Chivalry 2 older $39.99 46,707 79% 1.4M $56M (exactly $56,034,388) Torn Banner Studios
TEKKEN 8 older $39.99 46,009 56% 1.4M $55M (exactly $55,196,997) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Party Animals older $19.99 56,043 81% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,608,987) Recreate Games
Gang Beasts older $19.99 54,880 85% 1.6M $33M (exactly $32,911,536) Boneloaf, Rocket Science
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles older $59.99 16,545 87% 496k $30M (exactly $29,776,036) CyberConnect2
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
JoJo's Bizarre Adventure: All-Star Battle R older $49.99 14,344 91% 430k $22M (exactly $21,511,697) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
BLEACH Rebirth of Souls $59.99 4,831 68% 145k $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
THE KING OF FIGHTERS XV $29.99 8,399 83% 252k $7.6M (exactly $7,556,580) SNK CORPORATION
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles 2 $59.99 2,879 83% 86k $5.2M (exactly $5,181,336) CyberConnect2
MY HERO ACADEMIA: All’s Justice $59.99 765 63% 23k $1.4M (exactly $1,376,770) Byking Inc.
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
DEAD OR ALIVE 6 Last Round $39.99 550 31% 17k $660k (exactly $659,835) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.