Do I ship it?

Games › Swordplay › Swordplay + 2D Fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2D Fighter Swordplay game?

Swordplay + 2D Fighter

Of 31 developers who shipped a 2D Fighter Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $500; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×378 the market median. Revenue is up 275% on the market; 47 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 275% on the market, 47 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + 2D Fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $120 → $315 → $1.6k → $3.6k → $267 → $2.5k (still earning) → $32k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + 2D Fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $492 (exactly $492)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $43k (exactly $43,189)
Top 5% $237k (exactly $237,130)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 106
Announced 47
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 275% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, 2D Fighter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 6,699 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $500, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $43k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $500. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SOULCALIBUR VI 2018 · $18M SAMURAI SHODOWN 2021 · $2.5M Path of Kung Fu 2025 · $2.2M SpiderHeck 2022 · $1.8M Nidhogg 2014 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
SAMURAI SHODOWN older $49.53 1,685 81% 51k $2.5M (exactly $2,503,742) SNK CORPORATION
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
SpiderHeck older $14.99 3,922 93% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,763,723) Neverjam
Nidhogg older $9.99 5,717 90% 172k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,385) Messhof
First Cut: Samurai Duel older $8.99 1,986 88% 60k $536k (exactly $535,624) Night Eyes Interactive
Nidhogg 2 older $14.99 1,027 82% 31k $462k (exactly $461,842) Messhof
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
Shing! older $19.99 334 79% 10k $200k (exactly $200,300) Mass Creation
Bleak Sword DX older $9.99 641 76% 19k $192k (exactly $192,108) more8bit
Halluci-Sabbat of Koishi $7.99 701 91% 21k $168k (exactly $168,030) ZRIGN 地霊研究院
IGS Classic Arcade Collection $29.99 94 60% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) IGS(台灣鈊象電子)
AQUAPAZZA: Aquaplus Dream Match $19.99 104 33% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) AQUAPLUS
Age of Barbarians Chronicles $18.99 101 76% 3.0k $58k (exactly $57,540) Crian Soft
Trials of Valor $18.99 100 95% 3.0k $57k (exactly $56,970) Armored Goblin
Lady Death Demonicron $39.99 36 47% 1.1k $43k (exactly $43,189) Art Of Play Interactive
Ritter & Rotwein $12.49 86 68% 2.6k $32k (exactly $32,224) Hurdy-Gurdy Games
Shadow Prisoner · EA $13.99 32 93% 960 $13k (exactly $13,430) Kizawaya

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.