Do I ship it?

Games › Sports › Sports + 2D Fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2D Fighter Sports game?

Sports + 2D Fighter

Of 41 developers who shipped a 2D Fighter Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $45k, ×73 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 41 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 41 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + 2D Fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $657 → $120 → $5.1k → $3.0k → $1.4k → $1.6k (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + 2D Fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $6.9k (exactly $6,886)
Top 5% $46k (exactly $45,589)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 166
Announced 41
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, 2D Fighter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Combat
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 673 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $6.8k, 1 in 20 over $45k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

TEKKEN 7 2017 · $82M Punch Club 2016 · $3.6M Lethal League Blaze 2018 · $2.9M Nidhogg 2014 · $1.7M Lethal League 2014 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TEKKEN 7 older $39.99 68,063 83% 2.0M $82M (exactly $81,655,181) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Punch Club older $9.99 12,098 81% 363k $3.6M (exactly $3,625,771) Lazy Bear Games
Lethal League Blaze older $19.99 4,767 97% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,858,770) Team Reptile
Nidhogg older $9.99 5,717 90% 172k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,385) Messhof
Lethal League older $13.99 2,967 95% 89k $1.2M (exactly $1,245,250) Team Reptile
Waifu Fighter older $7.99 2,677 86% 80k $642k (exactly $641,677) Happy Monster Studio
River City Super Sports Challenge ~All Stars Special~ older $19.99 689 67% 21k $413k (exactly $413,193) Arc System Works
Karate Master 2 Knock Down Blow older $9.99 718 86% 22k $215k (exactly $215,185) Crian Soft
Baki Hanma: Blood Arena $29.99 138 76% 4.1k $124k (exactly $124,159) Purple Tree S R L
Thunder Ray older $14.99 270 71% 8.1k $121k (exactly $121,419) Purple Tree S R L
Femboy Futa Mania 🌶️ $14.99 174 71% 5.2k $78k (exactly $78,248) Lewd Star
Blazing Strike $39.99 38 52% 1.1k $46k (exactly $45,589) RareBreed Makes Games LLC
Pro Wrestler Story $8.99 109 49% 3.3k $29k (exactly $29,397) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
The Amazing Crackpots Club! $14.99 41 95% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Astrobard Games, IguanaBee
Boxing School 2 $14.99 41 80% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Raptor Claw Games
UnderGirl: Submission Path $7.99 72 73% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,258) KadoDev
Skullbreaker $29.99 13 92% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Sharkgame
EmberStride $29.99 12 91% 360 $11k (exactly $10,796) Sharkgame
Bounce 2 $9.99 35 85% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Digital Joy Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.