Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts game?

Martial Arts

Of 313 developers who shipped a Martial-Arts game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 492 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1812 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 492 games are announced against 173 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 492 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 313
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $18k → $6.6k → $5.4k → $1.6k → $4.8k → $2.9k (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 313
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $28,489)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631)
Developers, 2 yr 313
Released games 941
Announced 492
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 166,859 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 172 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 492 games are announced against 173 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Martial Arts

71 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Combat + Martial Arts Poor odds $1.5k 138 devs
  2. Arcade + Martial Arts Poor odds $1.5k 67 devs
  3. Action Roguelike + Martial Arts Poor odds $1.4k 38 devs
  4. Boxing + Martial Arts Poor odds $1.4k 30 devs
  5. 3D Fighter + Martial Arts Poor odds $1.3k 59 devs
  6. Sports + Martial Arts Poor odds $1.3k 36 devs
  7. PvP + Martial Arts Poor odds $1.2k 57 devs
  8. 3D Platformer + Martial Arts Poor odds $1.2k 18 devs
  9. Spectacle fighter + Martial Arts Poor odds $809 44 devs
  10. Swordplay + Martial Arts Poor odds $600 49 devs
  11. Card Battler + Martial Arts Poor odds $600 19 devs
  12. Tactical + Martial Arts Poor odds $449 26 devs
  13. 2D Platformer + Martial Arts Poor odds $419 47 devs
  14. JRPG + Martial Arts Dead $47k 5 devs
  15. Platformer + Martial Arts Dead $3.7k 18 devs
  16. Parkour + Martial Arts Dead $1.6k 9 devs
  17. Online Co-Op + Martial Arts Dead $1.2k 9 devs
  18. PvE + Martial Arts Dead $449 43 devs
  19. Local Co-Op + Martial Arts Dead $419 22 devs
  20. Shoot 'Em Up + Martial Arts Dead $240 7 devs
  21. Interactive Fiction + Martial Arts Dead $119 19 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO 2024 · $76M Street Fighter™ 6 2023 · $60M TEKKEN 8 2024 · $55M Mortal Kombat 1 2023 · $51M The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome 2026 · $51M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Street Fighter™ 6 older $39.99 49,952 81% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,927,414) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
TEKKEN 8 older $39.99 46,009 56% 1.4M $55M (exactly $55,196,997) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Mortal Kombat 1 older $49.99 34,197 74% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,285,241) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition older $19.99 70,499 94% 2.1M $42M (exactly $42,278,250) United Front Games, Feral Interactive (… (United Front Games, Feral Interactive (Mac))
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) older $29.99 40,829 85% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,733,851) 上海烛龙信息科技有限公司, Aurogon Shanghai
Nine Sols older $29.99 40,138 94% 1.2M $36M (exactly $36,112,159) RedCandleGames
Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth older $69.99 16,339 90% 490k $34M (exactly $34,306,998) RGG Studio
Dead as Disco · EA $24.99 12,354 96% 371k $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794) Brain Jar Games, Inc.
NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black $49.99 3,289 78% 99k $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties $59.99 2,229 62% 67k $4.0M (exactly $4,011,531) RGG Studio
Realm of Ink $24.99 5,007 90% 150k $3.8M (exactly $3,753,748) Leap Studio
SHINOBI: Art of Vengeance $29.99 3,564 83% 107k $3.2M (exactly $3,206,531) SEGA, Lizardcube

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.