Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Martial Arts

Only 19 developers shipped a Martial-Arts Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 再见断刀, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 10 developers shipped in the last year and 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 15 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30k → $300 → $0 (still earning) → $119 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $119 (exactly $119)
Top 25% $2.8k (exactly $2,753)
Top 5% $768k (exactly $768,131)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 38
Announced 15
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Interactive Fiction; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Dating Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 2,955 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $120, 1 in 4 over $2.7k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + PiratesFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  8. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  9. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  10. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  11. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  12. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
风信楼 older $11.99 3,423 94% 103k $1.2M (exactly $1,231,253) Pingfang Games
再见断刀 $9.99 2,563 92% 77k $768k (exactly $768,131) 非侠游戏
风流公子romantic young man older $4.99 704 92% 21k $105k (exactly $105,389) Ronin SoftWork
Songs of Wuxia older $3.99 768 78% 23k $92k (exactly $91,930) DreamStep
铜刀银剑 $9.26 188 80% 5.6k $52k (exactly $52,226) 念绣科技
romantic player older $2.99 424 73% 13k $38k (exactly $38,033) Ronin SoftWork
Morningstar: Book of the Fallen $14.99 67 94% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Droid Productions
Primal Hearts $24.99 38 89% 1.1k $28k (exactly $28,489) Marmalade
Wings of Empire · EA $14.99 49 87% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,035) Droid Productions
Primal Hearts 2 $24.99 23 95% 690 $17k (exactly $17,243) Marmalade
Re: GSpot Master $3.99 23 60% 690 $2.8k (exactly $2,753) Bang Bang King
Transforming my fiancée $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) FSK20006
OKeverything with 3000 beauties 2 $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) XIOF FAN, S+TEAMBABA, XU TING
OKeverything with 3000 beauties 3 $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) XIOF FAN, XU TING, S+TEAMBABA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.