Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Martial Arts

Of 38 developers who shipped a Martial-Arts Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2405 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 57 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 57 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $311k → $25k → $11k → $1.6k → $538 → $22k (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,976)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,510,646)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 88
Announced 57
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Hack and Slash, Action-Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 15,231 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sifu 2023 · $26M 嗜血印 Bloody Spell 2022 · $26M 暖雪 Warm Snow 2022 · $19M Realm of Ink 2026 · $3.8M WARRIORS: Abyss 2025 · $1.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
嗜血印 Bloody Spell older $24.99 34,184 89% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,627,745) 艺龙游戏
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
Realm of Ink $24.99 5,007 90% 150k $3.8M (exactly $3,753,748) Leap Studio
WARRIORS: Abyss $24.99 2,015 85% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,510,646) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Killer Bean · EA $14.99 2,272 73% 68k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,718) Killer Bean Studios LLC
Double Dragon Gaiden: Rise Of The Dragons older $24.99 1,270 86% 38k $952k (exactly $952,119) Secret Base
KIBORG $24.99 1,221 84% 37k $915k (exactly $915,384) Sobaka Studio
Cultivation Story: Reincarnation older $9.99 1,994 92% 60k $598k (exactly $597,602) Chi Entertainment Corp.
Karate Survivor $4.99 2,997 85% 90k $449k (exactly $448,651) Alawar
Echoes of Yi : Samsara $19.99 444 67% 13k $266k (exactly $266,267) Runmeng
Warlords Battleground: Extraction $11.99 525 84% 16k $189k (exactly $188,842) 绝汪
Poetry of Blood: Eclipse · EA $14.99 406 91% 12k $183k (exactly $182,578) ZeroGameStudio
Murim Survival $7.99 264 75% 7.9k $63k (exactly $63,281) Sunwood Games
Beatdown City Survivors $9.99 80 98% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,976) NuChallenger

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.