Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based › Turn-Based + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based + Turn-Based Strategy

Of 221 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 322 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×19 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3511 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 322 games are announced against 140 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 19.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 322 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 221
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $229k → $42k → $42k → $15k → $21k → $8.8k → $15k (still earning) → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 221
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Median $12k (exactly $11,994)
Top 25% $151k (exactly $151,124)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049)
Developers, 2 yr 221
Released games 1,208
Announced 322
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Turn-Based Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, RPG
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 97,558 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.3k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.3k. 6 in 10 of the 95 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 322 games are announced against 140 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Sid Meier's Civilization® V 2010 · $115M Total War: THREE KINGDOMS 2019 · $76M Balatro 2024 · $72M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization® V older $29.99 128,186 95% 3.8M $115M (exactly $115,328,944) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
South Park™: The Stick of Truth™ older $29.99 60,770 97% 1.8M $55M (exactly $54,674,769) Obsidian Entertainment
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition older $29.99 54,547 87% 1.6M $49M (exactly $49,075,936) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
Library Of Ruina older $29.99 40,605 94% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,532,318) ProjectMoon
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
ENDLESS Legend™ 2 · EA $49.99 2,476 83% 74k $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) AMPLITUDE Studios
Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition $49.99 2,141 68% 64k $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) Oxide Games
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.