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Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike Turn-Based game?
Turn-Based + Traditional Roguelike
Only 10 developers shipped a Traditional Roguelike Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Caves of Qud, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×17037 the market median. Revenue is up 225% on the market; 24 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $1.9k (exactly $1,918) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.4k (exactly $5,396) |
| Top 25% | $20k (exactly $19,780) |
| Top 5% | $11M (exactly $10,699,232) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 10 |
| Released games | 67 |
| Announced | 24 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 225% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 1%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Traditional Roguelike
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based, Traditional Roguelike
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 12,225 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 24 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds
- + DragonsStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashStrong odds
- + SandboxFair
- + HorrorFair
- + CraftingFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + ChessFair
- + Tower DefensePoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
Comparable games
Caves of Qud 2024 · $11M 
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- 2018 · $1.8M 
Low Magic Age 2017 · EA · $1.5M 
Jupiter Hell 2021 · $1.3M 
Tales of Maj'Eyal 2013 · $1.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Caves of Qud | $29.99 | 11,892 94% | 357k | $11M (exactly $10,699,232) | Freehold Games | |
| | Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- | older | $34.99 | 1,734 93% | 52k | $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) | AQUASTYLE |
| | Low Magic Age | · EA older | $14.99 | 3,342 89% | 100k | $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) | Low Magic Studios |
| | Jupiter Hell | older | $24.99 | 1,795 91% | 54k | $1.3M (exactly $1,345,712) | ChaosForge |
| | Tales of Maj'Eyal | older | $6.99 | 6,320 94% | 190k | $1.3M (exactly $1,325,304) | Netcore Games |
 | Cogmind | · EA older | $24.99 | 1,560 95% | 47k | $1.2M (exactly $1,169,532) | Grid Sage Games |
 | Dungeons of Dredmor | older | $7.99 | 3,702 94% | 111k | $887k (exactly $887,369) | Gaslamp Games, Inc. |
 | Shattered Pixel Dungeon | older | $9.99 | 2,106 95% | 63k | $631k (exactly $631,168) | Shattered Pixel |
 | ADOM (Ancient Domains Of Mystery) | older | $14.99 | 1,253 86% | 38k | $563k (exactly $563,474) | Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno R… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno Rogue, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez) |
 | Shiren the Wanderer: The Tower of Fortune and the Dice of Fate | older | $19.99 | 891 75% | 27k | $534k (exactly $534,333) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
 | Lost Flame | $13.99 | 168 96% | 5.0k | $71k (exactly $70,510) | Bartosz Bojarowski | |
 | Bearly Brave | $9.99 | 66 84% | 2.0k | $20k (exactly $19,780) | Barbaric Games | |
 | Lucha Chess | · EA | $8.99 | 60 86% | 1.8k | $16k (exactly $16,182) | Jorge T.V. |
 | Ricave | $14.99 | 12 100% | 360 | $5.4k (exactly $5,396) | Rogueatic Games | |
 | Collateral Dungeon | $9.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) | Techosaurus Studios | |
 | Dragonwake | $7.99 | 8 62% | 240 | $1.9k (exactly $1,918) | Mr Crops | |
 | Tower of Scherbenmark | $4.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $898 (exactly $898) | Bernhard Kokesch | |
 | Platon³ | $4.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $299 (exactly $299) | AER Games | |
 | Oxidus Tales | $3.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $120 (exactly $120) | Mario Aviles |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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