Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + War

Of 80 developers who shipped a War Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 143 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.7k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.6M, ×4192 the market median. Revenue is up 130% on the market; 143 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 130% on the market, 143 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $2.5k → $6.5k → $5.4k → $8.7k → $14k → $5.4k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $8.7k (exactly $8,683)
Top 25% $67k (exactly $66,758)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 223
Announced 143
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 130% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical RPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Strategy RPG
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 32,874 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $8.7k, 1 in 4 over $66k, 1 in 20 over $2.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 143 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + Life SimPoor odds16 devs · median $7.7k · 26 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Age of Wonders 4 older $49.99 16,899 82% 507k $25M (exactly $25,343,430) Triumph Studios
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Kingdom Heroes 8 older $29.99 12,793 55% 384k $12M (exactly $11,509,862) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Valkyria Chronicles 4 Complete Edition older $49.99 5,691 86% 171k $8.5M (exactly $8,534,793) SEGA
Partisans 1941 older $29.99 7,531 82% 226k $6.8M (exactly $6,775,641) Alter Games
Valkyria Chronicles™ older $19.99 10,832 89% 325k $6.5M (exactly $6,495,950) SEGA
TRIANGLE STRATEGY older $59.99 3,239 78% 97k $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars $49.99 2,049 94% 61k $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) KONAMI
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II $39.99 2,088 53% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) Bulwark Studios
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily $29.99 1,529 85% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground)
Crown and Adventure $19.99 1,693 61% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,015,292) C3D Games
Metal Slug Tactics $24.99 1,152 76% 35k $864k (exactly $863,654) Leikir Studio
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.