Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Romance

Of 23 developers who shipped a Romance Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2453 the market median. Revenue is up 280% on the market; 38 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 280% on the market, 38 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $78k → $2.5k → $10k → $30k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $2.9k (exactly $2,878)
Median $10k (exactly $10,343)
Top 25% $194k (exactly $194,303)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,540,192)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 69
Announced 38
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 280% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Tactics, Choices Matter
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 7,946 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.9k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $190k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.9k. 6 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced
  12. + Life SimPoor odds16 devs · median $7.7k · 26 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader older $49.99 33,701 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,541,390) Owlcat Games
Symphony of War: The Nephilim Saga older $19.99 12,880 94% 386k $7.7M (exactly $7,724,136) Dancing Dragon Games
Valkyria Chronicles™ older $19.99 10,832 89% 325k $6.5M (exactly $6,495,950) SEGA
Dragon Age II: Ultimate Edition older $29.99 6,953 81% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,255,614) BioWare
Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew older $39.99 5,190 91% 156k $6.2M (exactly $6,226,443) Mimimi Games
Romancing SaGa 2: Revenge of the Seven $49.99 3,921 93% 118k $5.9M (exactly $5,880,324) Square Enix, xeen Inc.
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky older $19.99 8,801 94% 264k $5.3M (exactly $5,277,960) Nihon Falcom
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC older $29.99 3,744 97% 112k $3.4M (exactly $3,368,477) Nihon Falcom
GreedFall: The Dying World $49.99 1,027 61% 31k $1.5M (exactly $1,540,192) Spiders
The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily $29.99 1,529 85% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground)
Ledgerbound $29.99 562 92% 17k $506k (exactly $505,631) OmniMegaSuperCorp
VARLET $59.99 121 47% 3.6k $218k (exactly $217,764) FURYU CORPORATION
Ascend From Nine Mountains · EA $19.99 324 92% 9.7k $194k (exactly $194,303) Nine Ascension Studios
Shadow Lotus $14.99 136 70% 4.1k $61k (exactly $61,159) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
Ataegina Act I $11.99 83 92% 2.5k $30k (exactly $29,855) Kthulian
Aquilon's Sex Quest $6.99 112 70% 3.4k $23k (exactly $23,486) Aquilon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.