Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Mystery Dungeon

Of 30 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 160% on the market; 24 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 160% on the market, 24 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $122k → $1.6k → $1.9k → $57k → $298 (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $41,822)
Top 5% $354k (exactly $354,423)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 67
Announced 24
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 160% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG, Mystery Dungeon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dungeon Crawler, RPG, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 1,982 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  3. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  8. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  9. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  10. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  11. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced
  12. + Life SimPoor odds16 devs · median $7.7k · 26 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ENDLESS Dungeon™ - Definitive Edition older $14.99 2,953 64% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,964) AMPLITUDE Studios
Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island $39.99 470 85% 14k $564k (exactly $563,859) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Dungeon Drafters older $24.99 563 76% 17k $422k (exactly $422,081) Manalith Studios
Vivid World $19.99 591 88% 18k $354k (exactly $354,423) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Caves of Lore older $9.99 408 93% 12k $122k (exactly $122,278) by Mike Robins
Dragon Quest Heroes: Torneko's Mystery Dungeon -Classic HD- $24.99 160 49% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) Square Enix
Death end re;Quest: Code Z $39.99 58 72% 1.7k $70k (exactly $69,583) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
Paper Animal Adventure · EA $14.99 139 95% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Cuddling Raccoons Studio
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
Shana - Priestess of Tona $9.99 190 74% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,943) Lustration Team
Elmarion: the Lost Temple $14.99 93 67% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Fleon Games
Aquilon's Sex Quest $6.99 112 70% 3.4k $23k (exactly $23,486) Aquilon
Sword Mistress of the Dungeon Town $17.99 38 65% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) ラブリープリチー超愛してる, Lovely Pretty Ultra Lov… (ラブリープリチー超愛してる, Lovely Pretty Ultra Loving You)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.