Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Tactical RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tactical RPG Sandbox?

Sandbox + Tactical RPG

Of 42 developers who shipped a Tactical RPG Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 102 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $20k, ×31 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1617 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 102 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 31.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 102 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Tactical RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $1.5k → $10k → $54k → $15k → $20k → $19k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Tactical RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Median $20k (exactly $19,780)
Top 25% $131k (exactly $131,290)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,015,292)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 131
Announced 102
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Tactical RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Character Customization
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 8,761 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.2k, median $20k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.2k. 6 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 102 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

RimWorld 2018 · $219M 鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal 2023 · $114M Wartales 2023 · $34M Starpoint Gemini Warlords 2017 · $3.2M 江湖十一 2023 · $2.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
Starpoint Gemini Warlords older $34.99 3,076 72% 92k $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) Little Green Men Games
江湖十一 older $17.99 5,385 42% 162k $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) 万象皆春
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Between the Stars older $29.99 1,965 75% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,910) Isolated Games
Star Traders: Frontiers older $14.99 3,672 83% 110k $1.7M (exactly $1,651,298) Trese Brothers
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
Stellar Tactics $24.99 1,666 77% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) Don Wilkins
Crown and Adventure $19.99 1,693 61% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,015,292) C3D Games
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Valorborn · EA $24.99 492 60% 15k $369k (exactly $368,852) Laps Games
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit
The End of History · EA $28.00 366 68% 11k $307k (exactly $307,440) Tatamibeya
The Monster Breeder $29.99 272 91% 8.2k $245k (exactly $244,718) Fantasy Creations
Dead Weight $12.99 575 82% 17k $224k (exactly $224,078) Klukva Games
This Grand Life 2 $17.99 307 88% 9.2k $166k (exactly $165,688) Poking Water Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.