Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Life Sim Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Life Sim

Only 16 developers shipped a Life Sim Tactical RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The End of History, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.7k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×490 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 26 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 26 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $513k → $4.0k → $299 → $8.8k
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $7.7k (exactly $7,727)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $54,891)
Top 5% $307k (exactly $307,440)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 45
Announced 26
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG, Life Sim; all of the top 25% also carry RPG, Sandbox, Strategy RPG
Price point
$9.00 typical · top 25% priced $28.00 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $28.00 or above; the middle game at $9.00.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 1,456 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $7.7k, 1 in 4 over $54k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Punch Club 2: Fast Forward older $19.99 3,808 81% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,283,658) Lazy Bear Games
One Military Camp older $24.99 684 75% 21k $513k (exactly $512,795) Abylight Barcelona
The End of History · EA $28.00 366 68% 11k $307k (exactly $307,440) Tatamibeya
This Grand Life 2 $17.99 307 88% 9.2k $166k (exactly $165,688) Poking Water Games
Ninja Village older $8.99 546 93% 16k $147k (exactly $147,256) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Monarch : Medieval Remastered $11.99 365 80% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) Mr.Lordy
Lost Scavenger · EA older $14.99 220 51% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Rockbee
Song's Fantasy $7.99 229 55% 6.9k $55k (exactly $54,891) 南十字座工作室
Medieval Legacy $19.99 66 86% 2.0k $40k (exactly $39,580) Ninetoplay
Social Justice Warriors older $7.99 100 50% 3.0k $24k (exactly $23,970) Nonadecimal Creative
Punch to Glory $6.99 42 92% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) Musa GUNGOR
MagicCar of Delicious $9.99 26 76% 780 $7.8k (exactly $7,792) YINGGUO GAME
中年失业模拟器2-When a man lose his job 2 $5.99 43 60% 1.3k $7.7k (exactly $7,727) Kwing works
Pop Star Life $4.99 9 66% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Rakun Interactive
Breeding Estate $9.00 3 0% 90 $810 (exactly $810) びゅびゅ丸★

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.