Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Turn-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tactical RPG Turn-Based game?

Tactical RPG + Turn-Based

Of 61 developers who shipped a Tactical RPG Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 81 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $18k, ×29 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×3989 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 81 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 29.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 81 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Turn-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $40k → $45k → $85k → $109k → $60k → $6.3k → $15k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Turn-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $3.8k (exactly $3,778)
Median $18k (exactly $18,282)
Top 25% $224k (exactly $224,078)
Top 5% $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 321
Announced 81
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG, Turn-Based; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 25,969 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.8k, median $18k, 1 in 4 over $220k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.8k. 5 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 81 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  10. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  11. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced
  12. + Life SimPoor odds16 devs · median $7.7k · 26 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
Wasteland 3 older $39.99 17,263 84% 518k $21M (exactly $20,710,421) inXile Entertainment
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Jagged Alliance 3 older $44.99 10,882 89% 326k $15M (exactly $14,687,435) Haemimont Games
Gloomhaven older $34.99 13,628 82% 409k $14M (exactly $14,305,312) Flaming Fowl Studios, Saber Interactive
SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS older $59.99 6,939 82% 208k $12M (exactly $12,488,118) TOM CREATE, 株式会社トムクリエイト
Wildermyth older $24.99 16,316 94% 489k $12M (exactly $12,232,105) Worldwalker Games LLC
The Banner Saga older $24.99 13,470 88% 404k $10M (exactly $10,098,459) Stoic
Romancing SaGa 2: Revenge of the Seven $49.99 3,921 93% 118k $5.9M (exactly $5,880,324) Square Enix, xeen Inc.
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II $39.99 2,088 53% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) Bulwark Studios
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Metal Slug Tactics $24.99 1,152 76% 35k $864k (exactly $863,654) Leikir Studio
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit
Every Day We Fight · EA $29.99 385 72% 12k $346k (exactly $346,384) Signal Space Lab

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.