Games › Tactical RPG › Tactical RPG + Visual Novel
Should I ship a Visual Novel Tactical RPG?
Tactical RPG + Visual Novel
Of 44 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $69k, ×111 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 58 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $419 (exactly $419) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.9k (exactly $2,938) |
| Top 25% | $23k (exactly $23,377) |
| Top 5% | $70k (exactly $69,583) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 44 |
| Released games | 135 |
| Announced | 58 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Tactical RPG
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Tactical RPG, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Turn-Based Combat
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 1,667 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Tactical RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + Space SimFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + RobotsPoor odds
- + RomancePoor odds
- + WarPoor odds
Comparable games
Super Robot Wars 30 2021 · $10M 
Digimon Survive 2022 · $5.6M 
Banner of the Maid 2019 · $3.4M 
Persona 5 Tactica 2023 · $2.7M 
Utawarerumono: Prelude to the Fallen 2021 · $2.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Super Robot Wars 30 | older | $59.99 | 5,608 85% | 168k | $10M (exactly $10,092,718) | Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc. |
| | Digimon Survive | older | $59.99 | 3,124 78% | 94k | $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) | HYDE, Inc. |
| | Banner of the Maid | older | $16.99 | 6,580 86% | 197k | $3.4M (exactly $3,353,826) | Azure Flame Studio |
| | Persona 5 Tactica | older | $59.99 | 1,526 74% | 46k | $2.7M (exactly $2,746,342) | ATLUS |
| | Utawarerumono: Prelude to the Fallen | older | $59.99 | 1,328 93% | 40k | $2.4M (exactly $2,390,002) | AQUAPLUS |
 | Utawarerumono: Mask of Truth | older | $39.99 | 1,461 96% | 44k | $1.8M (exactly $1,752,762) | AQUAPLUS |
 | Utawarerumono: Mask of Deception | older | $39.99 | 1,328 92% | 40k | $1.6M (exactly $1,593,202) | AQUAPLUS |
 | Monochrome Mobius: Rights and Wrongs Forgotten | older | $59.99 | 759 80% | 23k | $1.4M (exactly $1,365,972) | AQUAPLUS |
 | Agarest: Generations of War | older | $14.99 | 1,668 70% | 50k | $750k (exactly $750,100) | Idea Factory |
 | Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered | $59.99 | 289 83% | 8.7k | $520k (exactly $520,113) | AQUAPLUS | |
 | Aether & Iron | $24.99 | 521 84% | 16k | $391k (exactly $390,594) | Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games | |
 | Death end re;Quest: Code Z | $39.99 | 58 72% | 1.7k | $70k (exactly $69,583) | Idea Factory, Compile Heart | |
 | Horny Housewives 2 | $14.99 | 146 63% | 4.4k | $66k (exactly $65,656) | Entropy Digital Entertainment | |
 | Shadow Lotus | $14.99 | 136 70% | 4.1k | $61k (exactly $61,159) | Entropy Digital Entertainment | |
 | Shana - Priestess of Tona | $9.99 | 190 74% | 5.7k | $57k (exactly $56,943) | Lustration Team | |
 | LABYRINTHOS: The Depths Want You | $24.99 | 57 84% | 1.7k | $43k (exactly $42,733) | Astronauts | |
 | Sunrider Legends Tactics | $29.99 | 40 80% | 1.2k | $36k (exactly $35,988) | Love in Space | |
 | Slay or Fall | $6.99 | 147 89% | 4.4k | $31k (exactly $30,826) | ostsergey | |
 | Ataegina Act I | $11.99 | 83 92% | 2.5k | $30k (exactly $29,855) | Kthulian |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.