Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Tabletop

Of 38 developers who shipped a Tabletop Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1769 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 56 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 56 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $49k → $1.0k → $9.3k → $13k → $3.9k → $3.0k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,077)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 221
Announced 56
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Tabletop; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Board Game
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 12,798 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus older $29.99 11,279 91% 338k $10M (exactly $10,147,716) Bulwark Studios
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
Richman10 older $13.99 11,677 51% 350k $4.9M (exactly $4,900,837) Softstar Technology (Beijing) Co.,Ltd
Gremlins, Inc. older $19.99 6,562 85% 197k $3.9M (exactly $3,935,231) Charlie Oscar Lima Tango Interactive En… (Charlie Oscar Lima Tango Interactive Entertainment)
Blood Bowl 3 older $29.99 3,940 51% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,544,818) Cyanide Studio
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
Scythe: Digital Edition older $19.99 3,164 89% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,897,451) The Knights of Unity
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Bingle Bingle $14.99 666 80% 20k $300k (exactly $299,500) Knitting Games
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Crown Gambit $17.99 428 94% 13k $231k (exactly $230,992) WILD WITS GAMES
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Marisa of Liartop Mountain $14.99 286 84% 8.6k $129k (exactly $128,614) Alliance Arts, UnknownX
Shields of Loyalty $19.99 140 77% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Mosaic Mask Studio
Deckline $3.99 294 86% 8.8k $35k (exactly $35,192) Room Games, KREIDPIX
Barrage $14.99 78 80% 2.3k $35k (exactly $35,077) Cranio Lab

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.