Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Supernatural

Only 12 developers shipped a Supernatural Tactical RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Erannorth Renaissance, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $3.2k against a market of $630. 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 5.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 210% on the market, 10 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $3.2k (exactly $3,224)
Top 25% $8.6k (exactly $8,635)
Top 5% $112k (exactly $111,544)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 30
Announced 10
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 210% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 447 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $3.2k, 1 in 4 over $8.6k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Weird West: Definitive Edition older $39.99 3,962 77% 119k $4.8M (exactly $4,753,211) WolfEye Studios
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
The Lamplighters League older $49.99 726 71% 22k $1.1M (exactly $1,088,782) Harebrained Schemes
Shardpunk older $13.99 739 92% 22k $310k (exactly $310,158) Clockwork Pile
Erannorth Renaissance $19.99 186 81% 5.6k $112k (exactly $111,544) Spyridon Thalassinos
Deck of Souls $11.99 153 84% 4.6k $55k (exactly $55,034) Bigboot Studios
Tokyo Twilight Ghost Hunters Daybreak: Special Gigs older $9.99 67 52% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,080) Arc System Works, TOYBOX Inc.
Nayati River older $4.99 79 63% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,826) Worlds To Play
Cult Leader Simulator $17.99 16 50% 480 $8.6k (exactly $8,635) Nhneno
Expedition: Shadow World $15.99 12 100% 360 $5.8k (exactly $5,756) Pavel Tanonov
Sahir: Shiv of Memories $8.80 21 85% 630 $5.5k (exactly $5,544) HCY Games
鬼灵的冒险GUILING's Adventure $1.99 54 94% 1.6k $3.2k (exactly $3,224) 硅晶石工作室Sicrystal Studio
Mobs 'N Monsters $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Ghostie Games
Fate of Antara $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) CGI BUZZ Studio
Fake Ducks: Spooky Chronicles $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Mattia De Berardinis
The Last Sanctum · EA $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Anomalybyte Studio, Sunset Disco

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.