Do I ship it?

GamesSubmarineSubmarine + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Submarine game?

Submarine + Naval

Only 19 developers shipped a Naval Submarine game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $9.1M, ×14589 the market median. Revenue is up 2970% on the market; 27 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 2970% on the market, 27 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Submarine + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.0M → $21k → $105k → $1.2k → $21k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Submarine + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $65k (exactly $64,789)
Top 5% $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 73
Announced 27
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2970% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Submarine
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Submarine; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Naval Combat, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 7,844 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $64k, 1 in 20 over $9.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Submarine with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NatureFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  2. + StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  3. + Naval CombatPoor odds12 devs · median $3.4k · 19 announced
  4. + Co-opPoor odds10 devs · median $3.0k · 21 announced
  5. + HorrorPoor odds18 devs · median $2.8k · 31 announced
  6. + PhysicsPoor odds12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  7. + SimulationPoor odds38 devs · median $2.7k · 49 announced
  8. + Open WorldPoor odds10 devs · median $2.4k · 18 announced
  9. + Sci-fiPoor odds18 devs · median $1.8k · 34 announced
  10. + ExplorationPoor odds32 devs · median $959 · 72 announced
  11. + AdventurePoor odds28 devs · median $958 · 65 announced
  12. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $958 · 20 announced

All 22 pairs on the Submarine page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Barotrauma older $34.99 61,905 94% 1.9M $65M (exactly $64,981,678) FakeFish, Undertow Games
UBOAT older $29.99 25,568 83% 767k $23M (exactly $23,003,530) Deep Water Studio
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Cold Waters older $39.99 4,603 87% 138k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,219) Killerfish Games
War on the Sea older $39.99 3,151 76% 95k $3.8M (exactly $3,780,255) Killerfish Games
Wolfpack · EA older $34.99 1,862 88% 56k $2.0M (exactly $1,954,541) Usurpator AB
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
ICBM older $19.99 1,655 91% 50k $993k (exactly $992,503) SoftWarWare, K-Project
Destroyer: The U-Boat Hunter older $29.99 852 73% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
Silent Shark $17.99 125 98% 3.8k $67k (exactly $67,462) John Goering
大戦略SSB2 $59.99 36 66% 1.1k $65k (exactly $64,789) Systemsoft beta, Inc.
ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles · EA $8.99 192 96% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Tomas Sala
FULL METAL COFFIN $4.99 137 94% 4.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) Titanite, Mantle Array, Xenith
Speedboat Simulator · EA $8.99 10 70% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Hard Shark Games
Battleships and Carriers 2: 1940-1945 $15.99 5 60% 150 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) SLS
Tigershark $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) N-Space

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.