Do I ship it?

Games › Naval Combat › Naval Combat + Submarine

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Submarine Naval Combat game?

Naval Combat + Submarine

Only 12 developers shipped a Submarine Naval Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.1M, ×14589 the market median. Revenue is up 3940% on the market; 19 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 3940% on the market, 19 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Naval Combat + Submarine
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $1.2k → $9.2M → $3.4k → $296k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Naval Combat + Submarine: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,356)
Top 25% $296k (exactly $296,403)
Top 5% $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 57
Announced 19
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3940% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Submarine
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Naval Combat, Submarine
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 7,591 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $290k, 1 in 20 over $9.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Naval Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + World War IIFair12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  2. + MilitaryFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 48 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced
  4. + ArcadeLong shot21 devs · median $300 · 25 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds26 devs · median $38k · 80 announced
  6. + CraftingPoor odds11 devs · median $38k · 21 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds6 devs · median $29k · 28 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $29k · 30 announced
  10. + RTSPoor odds20 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $17k · 25 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 28 announced

All 54 pairs on the Naval Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

UBOAT 2024 · $23M Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age 2024 · EA · $9.2M Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts 2023 · $7.0M Cold Waters 2017 · $5.5M War on the Sea 2021 · $3.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
UBOAT older $29.99 25,568 83% 767k $23M (exactly $23,003,530) Deep Water Studio
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Cold Waters older $39.99 4,603 87% 138k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,219) Killerfish Games
War on the Sea older $39.99 3,151 76% 95k $3.8M (exactly $3,780,255) Killerfish Games
Wolfpack · EA older $34.99 1,862 88% 56k $2.0M (exactly $1,954,541) Usurpator AB
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
ICBM older $19.99 1,655 91% 50k $993k (exactly $992,503) SoftWarWare, K-Project
Destroyer: The U-Boat Hunter older $29.99 852 73% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
Silent Hunter® III older $9.99 2,544 87% 76k $762k (exactly $762,437) Ubisoft
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare $39.99 92 60% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Evil Twin Artworks
Silent Shark $17.99 125 98% 3.8k $67k (exactly $67,462) John Goering
Uboat Attack $7.99 14 85% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) VOODOO
Abyss Crew $9.99 10 30% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) PGM Studio, Deep Slap Studio
Battleships and Carriers 2: 1940-1945 $15.99 5 60% 150 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) SLS
Tigershark $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) N-Space
The Fishercat $4.99 6 83% 180 $898 (exactly $898) MACARON STUDIO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.