Do I ship it?

Games › Submarine › Submarine + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Submarine game?

Submarine + Exploration

Of 32 developers who shipped an Exploration Submarine game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×394 the market median. Revenue is up 175% on the market; 72 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 175% on the market, 72 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Submarine + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $3.4k → $6.7k → $4.7k → $300 → $716 → $959 (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Submarine + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 5% $248k (exactly $247,552)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 92
Announced 72
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 175% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Submarine
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Submarine, Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 2,796 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $960, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Submarine with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NatureFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  2. + StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  3. + Naval CombatPoor odds12 devs · median $3.4k · 19 announced
  4. + Co-opPoor odds10 devs · median $3.0k · 21 announced
  5. + HorrorPoor odds18 devs · median $2.8k · 31 announced
  6. + PhysicsPoor odds12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  7. + SimulationPoor odds38 devs · median $2.7k · 49 announced
  8. + Open WorldPoor odds10 devs · median $2.4k · 18 announced
  9. + Sci-fiPoor odds18 devs · median $1.8k · 34 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds19 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  11. + AdventurePoor odds28 devs · median $958 · 65 announced
  12. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $958 · 20 announced

All 22 pairs on the Submarine page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Iron Lung 2022 · $2.4M We Need To Go Deeper 2019 · $2.2M Under The Waves 2023 · $1.5M STASIS: BONE TOTEM 2023 · $1.2M The Fisherman - Fishing Planet 2019 · $877k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Iron Lung older $7.99 10,168 92% 305k $2.4M (exactly $2,437,270) David Szymanski
We Need To Go Deeper older $15.99 4,652 86% 140k $2.2M (exactly $2,231,564) Deli Interactive LLC
Under The Waves older $29.99 1,683 77% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,514,195) Parallel Studio
STASIS: BONE TOTEM older $19.99 2,025 93% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) THE BROTHERHOOD
The Fisherman - Fishing Planet older $29.99 975 62% 29k $877k (exactly $877,208) Fishing Planet LLC
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
Ocean Keeper: Dome Survival $9.99 826 77% 25k $248k (exactly $247,552) RetroStyle Games
The Aquatic Adventure of the Last Human older $9.99 459 73% 14k $138k (exactly $137,562) YCJY Games
Static Dread: The Submarine $11.99 307 81% 9.2k $110k (exactly $110,428) solarsuit.games
Verne: The Shape of Fantasy older $14.99 221 82% 6.6k $99k (exactly $99,384) Gametopia
There's Nothing Down There $2.00 394 84% 12k $24k (exactly $23,640) Tim Trankle
CRUSH DEPTH $7.99 49 97% 1.5k $12k (exactly $11,745) Earth Giant
The Oily Depths $2.99 107 84% 3.2k $9.6k (exactly $9,598) Ryan R. Burns
The Abyss Below $4.99 58 81% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,683) Broken Relay
A Tale of Silent Depths $9.99 21 80% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Crit42 Studio
Sonar Scout $5.99 26 100% 780 $4.7k (exactly $4,672) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Do… (Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Doppelmayr, Christoph Englert, Pontus Liljekvist, Hugo Roque)
Submeris $4.99 19 57% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) OxygenStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.