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Should I ship a Visual Novel Stealth game?
Stealth + Visual Novel
Of 22 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×353 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 78 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.6k (exactly $2,637) |
| Top 25% | $56k (exactly $56,386) |
| Top 5% | $222k (exactly $221,889) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 22 |
| Released games | 76 |
| Announced | 78 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Stealth
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Stealth, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Point & Click, Puzzle
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2.5D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 1,884 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 5 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Stealth with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + JRPGFair
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
- + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds
- + WargamePoor odds
- + DinosaursPoor odds
- + Gun CustomizationPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + Cold WarPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + MilitaryPoor odds
- + WarPoor odds
Comparable games
LumineNight 2024 · $386k 
Claire's Quest: GOLD 2021 · EA · $337k 
The Agnietta ~The holy healer & the cursed dungeon~ 2023 · $316k 
Deer & Boy 2026 · $222k 
LoveKami -Divinity Stage- 2016 · $213k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | LumineNight | $24.99 | 515 87% | 15k | $386k (exactly $386,096) | Spickasoft | |
| | Claire's Quest: GOLD | · EA older | $19.99 | 562 85% | 17k | $337k (exactly $337,031) | Dystopian Project |
| | The Agnietta ~The holy healer & the cursed dungeon~ | older | $9.99 | 1,054 82% | 32k | $316k (exactly $315,884) | B-flat |
| | Deer & Boy | $19.99 | 370 94% | 11k | $222k (exactly $221,889) | Lifeline Games | |
| | LoveKami -Divinity Stage- | older | $12.99 | 547 83% | 16k | $213k (exactly $213,166) | MoeNovel |
 | Manny's | older | $7.99 | 671 91% | 20k | $161k (exactly $160,839) | Bonemeal Productions |
 | The DeLuca Family - Season 1 | older | $15.99 | 301 75% | 9.0k | $144k (exactly $144,390) | MemoGaming |
 | 晨昏线 | $9.99 | 427 76% | 13k | $128k (exactly $127,972) | Enter Games | |
 | Rina's Undercover Train Operation | $13.99 | 286 70% | 8.6k | $120k (exactly $120,034) | Metamorphose | |
 | Sentimental Death Loop | older | $19.99 | 151 58% | 4.5k | $91k (exactly $90,555) | qureate, IXILL LLC. |
 | Arsene Lupin - Once a Thief | $29.99 | 69 68% | 2.1k | $62k (exactly $62,079) | Blazing Griffin | |
 | Totally Spies! - Cyber Mission | $39.99 | 47 63% | 1.4k | $56k (exactly $56,386) | Balio Studio | |
 | Deadrock Salvation | $9.99 | 38 86% | 1.1k | $11k (exactly $11,389) | Ghost Machine | |
 | I woke up in the house of a fat man: he's over 30 years old and loves beer and games | $2.99 | 99 80% | 3.0k | $8.9k (exactly $8,880) | 1ne2wozzz | |
 | Under the Table | $29.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $4.5k (exactly $4,498) | RB Ashton | |
 | 100 Cats Lost In World Find & Color | $4.99 | 28 96% | 840 | $4.2k (exactly $4,192) | Two Cats Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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