Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy Stealth game?

Stealth + Turn-Based Strategy

Only 11 developers shipped a Turn-Based Strategy Stealth game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cyber Knights: Flashpoint, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $2.6M, ×4192 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 27 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 27 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $897 → $7.8k → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $6.9k (exactly $6,924)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 56
Announced 27
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 91% positive over 3,530 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $6.9k, 1 in 20 over $2.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden older $34.99 13,305 89% 399k $14M (exactly $13,966,258) The Bearded Ladies
Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion older $17.99 22,287 84% 669k $12M (exactly $12,028,294) 半瓶醋工作室(Half Amateur Studio)
Phantom Doctrine older $39.99 3,821 73% 115k $4.6M (exactly $4,584,054) CreativeForge Games
Invisible, Inc. older $19.99 5,096 91% 153k $3.1M (exactly $3,056,071) Klei Entertainment
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Demeo older $39.99 1,703 87% 51k $2.0M (exactly $2,043,089) Resolution Games
Classified: France '44 older $39.99 844 70% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,547) Absolutely Games
Sumerian Six older $29.99 1,101 94% 33k $991k (exactly $990,570) Artificer
Wild Bastards older $34.99 616 74% 18k $647k (exactly $646,615) Blue Manchu
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures
Paracom $10.99 21 90% 630 $6.9k (exactly $6,924) Steel Widow Klan
Lands of Rumour $9.99 13 76% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Vaeril Games
Silent $2.99 27 44% 810 $2.4k (exactly $2,422) GenemesicX
Nightmare Pursuit · EA $4.99 7 42% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) JusCify
Faith Of Life _ Survive Edition $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Faith Studio Team
Silent Howl $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Yorbi
Detective Pig $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Young Man
Steal It $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) LuQ Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.