Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Stealth game?

Stealth + Top-Down Shooter

Of 25 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×202 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 56 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 56 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $5.1k → $898 → $719 → $2.3k → $12k → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $628 (exactly $628)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,897)
Top 5% $127k (exactly $127,014)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 96
Announced 56
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth, Top-Down Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Action-Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,219 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $630, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. All of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Aliens: Dark Descent older $39.99 15,310 87% 459k $18M (exactly $18,367,407) Tindalos Interactive
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
Intravenous 2 older $19.99 4,069 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,440,179) Explosive Squat Games
Intravenous older $19.99 2,872 91% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,722,338) Explosive Squat Games
Endoparasitic older $9.99 2,928 93% 88k $878k (exactly $877,522) Miziziziz
Tunguska: The Visitation - Final Cut older $14.99 1,682 87% 50k $756k (exactly $756,395) Rotorist Workshop
METAL GEAR & METAL GEAR 2: Solid Snake older $19.99 775 83% 23k $465k (exactly $464,767) KONAMI
Deadeye Deepfake Simulacrum $12.99 839 98% 25k $327k (exactly $326,958) nodayshalleraseyou
METAL GEAR SOLID: MASTER COLLECTION Vol.1 BONUS CONTENT older $59.99 125 63% 3.8k $225k (exactly $224,962) KONAMI
PROHIBEAST $34.99 121 57% 3.6k $127k (exactly $127,014) SUPER AC
Spy Drops $14.99 93 63% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Rainy Night Creations
Regulators $14.99 35 100% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) Orangepixel
Time for Bed $4.99 83 96% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,425) NERDY PENGUIN
The Zebra-Man! $14.99 10 90% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Zerouno Games, Thunder Zebra
Enemy Inside · EA $12.99 10 100% 300 $3.9k (exactly $3,897) Six Ways Games
Super Chaos $5.99 13 92% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) Anodaxia
Moccoletti $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Consortium of Octopus
Stealth Syndicate $3.99 8 100% 240 $958 (exactly $958) Vincent Lopes-Vicente

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.