Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Space

Only 19 developers shipped a Space Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Terra Invicta, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×17302 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 28 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 28 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $45k → $68k → $66k → $7.8k → $189k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Median $7.8k (exactly $7,792)
Top 25% $151k (exactly $151,124)
Top 5% $11M (exactly $10,865,683)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 133
Announced 28
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 17,965 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $7.8k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BATTLETECH older $39.99 23,024 84% 691k $28M (exactly $27,621,893) Harebrained Schemes
ENDLESS Space™ 2 older $39.99 17,280 83% 518k $21M (exactly $20,730,816) AMPLITUDE Studios
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS older $59.99 6,939 82% 208k $12M (exactly $12,488,118) TOM CREATE, 株式会社トムクリエイト
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
STAR WARS™ Knights of the Old Republic™ older $9.99 28,518 90% 856k $8.5M (exactly $8,546,845) BioWare, Aspyr (Mac)
Galactic Civilizations III older $29.99 8,337 77% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) Stardock Entertainment
STAR WARS™ Knights of the Old Republic™ II - The Sith Lords™ older $9.99 22,357 93% 671k $6.7M (exactly $6,700,393) Obsidian Entertainment, Aspyr (Mac, Lin… (Obsidian Entertainment, Aspyr (Mac, Linux, & Windows Update))
Warhammer 40,000: Battlesector older $39.99 5,064 88% 152k $6.1M (exactly $6,075,281) Slitherine Ltd.
Master of Orion older $24.99 7,332 76% 220k $5.5M (exactly $5,496,800) NGD Studios
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Enter the Chronosphere · EA $14.99 420 94% 13k $189k (exactly $188,874) Effort Star
Starless Abyss $19.99 296 83% 8.9k $178k (exactly $177,511) Konafa Games
Chaos Front $19.99 252 59% 7.6k $151k (exactly $151,124) Han Zhiyu
R-Type Tactics I • II Cosmos $49.99 94 82% 2.8k $141k (exactly $140,972) Granzella Inc.
Repel The Rifts · EA $12.99 347 85% 10k $135k (exactly $135,226) RefinedBearGames
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
Inventorix $4.99 131 100% 3.9k $20k (exactly $19,611) Arcaludi
Dominova $9.99 26 96% 780 $7.8k (exactly $7,792) Glenn Verheij

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.