Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Space

Of 24 developers who shipped a Space Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×445 the market median. Revenue is up 575% on the market; 62 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 575% on the market, 62 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.3k → $45k → $6.3k → $2.2k → $0 → $5.8k → $13k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $540 (exactly $540)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,424)
Top 5% $280k (exactly $279,638)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 97
Announced 62
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 575% on the market, supply 280% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Exploration
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 2,657 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader older $49.99 33,701 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,541,390) Owlcat Games
SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS older $59.99 6,939 82% 208k $12M (exactly $12,488,118) TOM CREATE, 株式会社トムクリエイト
Colony Ship: A Post-Earth Role Playing Game older $39.99 4,087 87% 123k $4.9M (exactly $4,903,174) Iron Tower Studio
Starpoint Gemini Warlords older $34.99 3,076 72% 92k $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) Little Green Men Games
Starpoint Gemini 2 older $34.99 3,021 70% 91k $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) Little Green Men Games
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Between the Stars older $29.99 1,965 75% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,910) Isolated Games
Star Traders: Frontiers older $14.99 3,672 83% 110k $1.7M (exactly $1,651,298) Trese Brothers
Stellar Tactics $24.99 1,666 77% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) Don Wilkins
Halcyon 6: Starbase Commander older $14.99 964 80% 29k $434k (exactly $433,511) Massive Damage, Inc.
Sector Unknown $24.99 373 80% 11k $280k (exactly $279,638) Creative Storm Entertainment
Chaos Front $19.99 252 59% 7.6k $151k (exactly $151,124) Han Zhiyu
STARBITES $49.99 42 64% 1.3k $63k (exactly $62,987) IKINAGAMES
Deck & Conn $14.99 110 74% 3.3k $49k (exactly $49,467) Funtime Electrics
NebuLeet $15.99 53 90% 1.6k $25k (exactly $25,424) quasilyte
Wings of Empire · EA $14.99 49 87% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,035) Droid Productions
Frontier: Path of Shadows $14.99 49 91% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,035) Oduvan Games
Spacefleet: Heat Death · EA $11.99 36 86% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,949) Spacezero Interactive
Null Hørizøn $9.99 27 85% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) HopefullyHeroic

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.