Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Sokoban

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sokoban Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Sokoban

Only 8 developers shipped a Sokoban Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Lord Ambermaze, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $8.8k against a market of $630. 6 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 14.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 6 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Sokoban
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $1.3k → $8.8k
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Sokoban: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $6.8k (exactly $6,829)
Median $8.8k (exactly $8,807)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,244)
Top 5% $59k (exactly $58,911)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 30
Announced 6
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Sokoban
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 894 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.9k, median $8.8k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.9k. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 6 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bean and Nothingness older $11.99 212 98% 6.4k $76k (exactly $76,256) RBOR Games
Puddle Knights older $9.99 219 98% 6.6k $66k (exactly $65,634) Lockpickle
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
Prickle $6.99 87 100% 2.6k $18k (exactly $18,244) Sunbird Studio
Shrink Rooms $14.99 34 91% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Mat-Rix, Pone Games
Animal Planner older $4.99 70 98% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,479) PawPaw Games
Demon Corporation: Onboarding $6.99 42 95% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) A Shrine of Ludens
Mycelium Heaven $9.99 24 95% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) 3DGoblinDev
Kiko's Apple Adventure $5.99 38 94% 1.1k $6.8k (exactly $6,829) PawPaw Games
SokoChess older $4.99 37 91% 1.1k $5.5k (exactly $5,539) Daisy Games
Lost in Cheese $12.99 4 100% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) SnøVittra
Will The King Escape? $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Giuseppe Praticò

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.