Do I ship it?

GamesSkateboardingSkateboarding + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Skateboarding Sports game?

Skateboarding + Sports

Of 24 developers who shipped a Skateboarding Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.2k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×3711 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 39 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 39 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Skateboarding + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.6k → $1.2k → $47k → $719 → $16k → $37k → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Skateboarding + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $8.2k (exactly $8,234)
Top 25% $226k (exactly $225,660)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,330,534)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 85
Announced 39
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Skateboarding
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Skateboarding, Sports; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, 3D Platformer, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 11,918 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $8.2k, 1 in 4 over $220k, 1 in 20 over $2.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Skateboarding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationPoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 21 announced
  2. + 3D PlatformerPoor odds13 devs · median $8.6k · 19 announced
  3. + ExplorationPoor odds15 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds20 devs · median $8.1k · 18 announced
  5. + ActionPoor odds30 devs · median $6.7k · 56 announced
  6. + PhysicsPoor odds19 devs · median $6.7k · 40 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds19 devs · median $4.8k · 28 announced
  8. + PlatformerPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced
  9. + ParkourPoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 20 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds9 devs · median $2.9k · 14 announced
  11. + ArcadePoor odds24 devs · median $719 · 40 announced
  12. + Action-AdventureDead11 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced

All 14 pairs on the Skateboarding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Riders Republic older $39.99 30,458 81% 914k $37M (exactly $36,540,463) Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Pune, Ubisoft Odesa)
Skater XL - The Ultimate Skateboarding Game older $39.99 18,400 86% 552k $22M (exactly $22,074,480) Easy Day Studios Pty Ltd
Session: Skate Sim older $39.99 13,460 83% 404k $16M (exactly $16,147,962) crea-ture Studios Inc.
Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 1 + 2 older $39.99 4,497 90% 135k $5.4M (exactly $5,395,051) Vicarious Visions, Iron Galaxy Studios
BMX Streets older $24.99 4,366 80% 131k $3.3M (exactly $3,273,190) Mash Games
ScooterFlow $19.99 3,975 95% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808) UncannyKiwi Limited
Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 3 + 4 $49.99 1,554 68% 47k $2.3M (exactly $2,330,534) Iron Galaxy Studios
Skate Story $19.99 2,733 96% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,638,980) by Sam Eng
STORROR Parkour Pro · EA $24.99 1,605 71% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios
Driftwood $19.99 1,197 92% 36k $718k (exactly $717,841) Stoked Sloth Interactive
Helskate $24.99 301 65% 9.0k $226k (exactly $225,660) Phantom Coast
Virtual Skate · EA $19.99 96 98% 2.9k $58k (exactly $57,571) Flip Axis Studios
Skatehouse $9.99 123 94% 3.7k $37k (exactly $36,863) Tyler Ray Games
Stardust Skate $2.99 299 98% 9.0k $27k (exactly $26,820) VchiBan, Aetha
Seafrog $14.99 35 100% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) OhMyMe Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.