Do I ship it?

GamesSkateboardingSkateboarding + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Skateboarding game?

Skateboarding + Adventure

Only 19 developers shipped an Adventure Skateboarding game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, High On Life 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $2.6M, ×4203 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 28 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 28 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Skateboarding + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $25k → $16k → $4.6k → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Skateboarding + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,797)
Top 25% $226k (exactly $225,660)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,639,340)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 37
Announced 28
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Skateboarding
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Skateboarding, Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 8,702 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $220k, 1 in 20 over $2.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Skateboarding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationPoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 21 announced
  2. + 3D PlatformerPoor odds13 devs · median $8.6k · 19 announced
  3. + SportsPoor odds24 devs · median $8.2k · 39 announced
  4. + ExplorationPoor odds15 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  5. + SimulationPoor odds20 devs · median $8.1k · 18 announced
  6. + ActionPoor odds30 devs · median $6.7k · 56 announced
  7. + PhysicsPoor odds19 devs · median $6.7k · 40 announced
  8. + PlatformerPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced
  9. + ParkourPoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 20 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds9 devs · median $2.9k · 14 announced
  11. + ArcadePoor odds24 devs · median $719 · 40 announced
  12. + Action-AdventureDead11 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced

All 14 pairs on the Skateboarding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Skater XL - The Ultimate Skateboarding Game older $39.99 18,400 86% 552k $22M (exactly $22,074,480) Easy Day Studios Pty Ltd
High On Life 2 $39.99 2,200 71% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,639,340) Squanch Games, Inc.
Skate Story $19.99 2,733 96% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,638,980) by Sam Eng
Sword of the Sea $29.99 1,638 89% 49k $1.5M (exactly $1,473,709) Giant Squid
STORROR Parkour Pro · EA $24.99 1,605 71% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios
Pogostuck: Rage With Your Friends older $6.99 5,586 85% 168k $1.2M (exactly $1,171,384) Superku
Gori: Cuddly Carnage older $21.99 1,434 96% 43k $946k (exactly $946,010) Angry Demon Studio
Helskate $24.99 301 65% 9.0k $226k (exactly $225,660) Phantom Coast
Thirsty Suitors older $29.99 233 96% 7.0k $210k (exactly $209,630) Outerloop Games
Tanuki Sunset older $14.99 451 93% 14k $203k (exactly $202,815) Rewind Games
Star Overdrive $34.99 141 87% 4.2k $148k (exactly $148,008) Caracal Games
Seafrog $14.99 35 100% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) OhMyMe Games
Ollie-Oop $12.99 24 91% 720 $9.4k (exactly $9,353) Almost Playable Games
Bambas! $14.99 15 86% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) DevilishGames
Heart of Summer $15.99 10 100% 300 $4.8k (exactly $4,797) Akehabara

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.