Do I ship it?

GamesSkateboardingSkateboarding + 3D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 3D Platformer Skateboarding game?

Skateboarding + 3D Platformer

Only 13 developers shipped a 3D Platformer Skateboarding game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ScooterFlow, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.6k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×3796 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 19 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 19 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Skateboarding + 3D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.4k → $8.6k → $62k → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Skateboarding + 3D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $8.6k (exactly $8,598)
Top 25% $148k (exactly $148,008)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 27
Announced 19
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Skateboarding
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Skateboarding, 3D Platformer
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 8,960 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $8.6k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $2.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Skateboarding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationPoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 21 announced
  2. + SportsPoor odds24 devs · median $8.2k · 39 announced
  3. + ExplorationPoor odds15 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds20 devs · median $8.1k · 18 announced
  5. + ActionPoor odds30 devs · median $6.7k · 56 announced
  6. + PhysicsPoor odds19 devs · median $6.7k · 40 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds19 devs · median $4.8k · 28 announced
  8. + PlatformerPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced
  9. + ParkourPoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 20 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds9 devs · median $2.9k · 14 announced
  11. + ArcadePoor odds24 devs · median $719 · 40 announced
  12. + Action-AdventureDead11 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced

All 14 pairs on the Skateboarding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ScooterFlow $19.99 3,975 95% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808) UncannyKiwi Limited
Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 3 + 4 $49.99 1,554 68% 47k $2.3M (exactly $2,330,534) Iron Galaxy Studios
Skate Story $19.99 2,733 96% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,638,980) by Sam Eng
Gori: Cuddly Carnage older $21.99 1,434 96% 43k $946k (exactly $946,010) Angry Demon Studio
OlliOlli World older $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Roll7
Thirsty Suitors older $29.99 233 96% 7.0k $210k (exactly $209,630) Outerloop Games
Star Overdrive $34.99 141 87% 4.2k $148k (exactly $148,008) Caracal Games
VR Skater older $19.99 222 86% 6.7k $133k (exactly $133,133) DEFICIT Games
Toree Saturn $4.99 413 93% 12k $62k (exactly $61,826) Siactro
Skator Gator 3D older $4.99 176 96% 5.3k $26k (exactly $26,347) Weathered Sweater
Ollie-Oop $12.99 24 91% 720 $9.4k (exactly $9,353) Almost Playable Games
Mop Skater $6.99 41 78% 1.2k $8.6k (exactly $8,598) youpiepoopie
cheapskate · EA $4.99 55 98% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) Simple Dev Studio
Sonki's Lagoon · EA $7.99 20 95% 600 $4.8k (exactly $4,794) CocoDev
Hydrofoil Surfing $4.99 4 0% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Nightwork Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.