Do I ship it?

GamesSkateboardingSkateboarding + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Skateboarding game?

Skateboarding + Physics

Only 19 developers shipped a Physics Skateboarding game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ScooterFlow, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.7k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×3796 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 40 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 40 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Skateboarding + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $47k → $9.4k → $8.6k → $58k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Skateboarding + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Top 25% $148k (exactly $148,008)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 50
Announced 40
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Skateboarding
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Skateboarding, Physics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Character Customization, Exploration
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 9,096 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $6.7k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $2.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Skateboarding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationPoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 21 announced
  2. + 3D PlatformerPoor odds13 devs · median $8.6k · 19 announced
  3. + SportsPoor odds24 devs · median $8.2k · 39 announced
  4. + ExplorationPoor odds15 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  5. + SimulationPoor odds20 devs · median $8.1k · 18 announced
  6. + ActionPoor odds30 devs · median $6.7k · 56 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds19 devs · median $4.8k · 28 announced
  8. + PlatformerPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced
  9. + ParkourPoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 20 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds9 devs · median $2.9k · 14 announced
  11. + ArcadePoor odds24 devs · median $719 · 40 announced
  12. + Action-AdventureDead11 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced

All 14 pairs on the Skateboarding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Skater XL - The Ultimate Skateboarding Game older $39.99 18,400 86% 552k $22M (exactly $22,074,480) Easy Day Studios Pty Ltd
Session: Skate Sim older $39.99 13,460 83% 404k $16M (exactly $16,147,962) crea-ture Studios Inc.
BMX Streets older $24.99 4,366 80% 131k $3.3M (exactly $3,273,190) Mash Games
ScooterFlow $19.99 3,975 95% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808) UncannyKiwi Limited
STORROR Parkour Pro · EA $24.99 1,605 71% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios
Slackers - Carts of Glory $12.99 1,984 91% 60k $773k (exactly $773,165) Falling Saints
Driftwood $19.99 1,197 92% 36k $718k (exactly $717,841) Stoked Sloth Interactive
BMX The Game · EA older $24.99 448 60% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Barspin Studios
Star Overdrive $34.99 141 87% 4.2k $148k (exactly $148,008) Caracal Games
VR Skater older $19.99 222 86% 6.7k $133k (exactly $133,133) DEFICIT Games
Virtual Skate · EA $19.99 96 98% 2.9k $58k (exactly $57,571) Flip Axis Studios
Ollie-Oop $12.99 24 91% 720 $9.4k (exactly $9,353) Almost Playable Games
Mop Skater $6.99 41 78% 1.2k $8.6k (exactly $8,598) youpiepoopie
Skatesterre $14.99 18 55% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) Goon Squad
Bambas! $14.99 15 86% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) DevilishGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.