Do I ship it?

GamesWrestlingWrestling + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Wrestling game?

Wrestling + Simulation

Only 15 developers shipped a Simulation Wrestling game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, WWE 2K25, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×7.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.3M, ×11773 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 22 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 22 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wrestling + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $72k → $11k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wrestling + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,497)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,397)
Top 5% $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 52
Announced 22
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wrestling
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Wrestling, Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, Sports, 2D Fighter
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 7,118 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $7.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 22 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wrestling with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationPoor odds11 devs · median $11k · 21 announced
  2. + SportsPoor odds19 devs · median $4.5k · 33 announced
  3. + CombatPoor odds12 devs · median $2.3k · 34 announced
  4. + 3D FighterPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds15 devs · median $2.1k · 25 announced
  6. + ArcadePoor odds12 devs · median $1.8k · 22 announced
  7. + ActionPoor odds19 devs · median $1.5k · 46 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upPoor odds7 devs · median $539 · 23 announced
  9. + StrategyPoor odds9 devs · median $300 · 19 announced
  10. + PhysicsDead5 devs · median $3.1k · 13 announced
  11. + FightingDead7 devs · median $2.1k · 4 announced
  12. + Local MultiplayerDead5 devs · median $2.1k · 16 announced

All 13 pairs on the Wrestling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
WWE 2K26 $69.99 2,310 56% 69k $4.9M (exactly $4,850,307) Visual Concepts
Fire Pro Wrestling World older $29.99 3,124 91% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,810,663) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Wrestling Empire older $19.99 3,036 94% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,689) MDickie
Hard Time III older $14.99 929 85% 28k $418k (exactly $417,771) MDickie
Pro Wrestling Sim · EA older $19.99 662 97% 20k $397k (exactly $397,001) Pro Wrestling Sim
Old School older $14.99 442 83% 13k $199k (exactly $198,767) MDickie
Rancher: A new life · EA $19.99 265 64% 8.0k $159k (exactly $158,920) Sim Farm S.A.
RetroMania Wrestling older $19.99 243 80% 7.3k $146k (exactly $145,727) Retrosoft Studios
Wrestling Revolution 3D older $9.99 397 87% 12k $119k (exactly $118,981) MDickie
Femboy Futa Mania 🌶️ $14.99 174 71% 5.2k $78k (exactly $78,248) Lewd Star
Pro Wrestler Story $8.99 109 49% 3.3k $29k (exactly $29,397) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
All Your Wrestling Pro Manager $19.99 33 81% 990 $20k (exactly $19,790) All Your Games Studios
Uchi No Heya! $9.99 39 100% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,688) James West
Believr Pro Wrestling · EA $14.99 25 72% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) Believr Games
Promo Wrestling World $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) DreamXscape Studios
Just Dismantle $2.99 45 93% 1.4k $4.0k (exactly $4,037) Hubert Szwed

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.