Do I ship it?

GamesWrestlingWrestling + Local Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Wrestling game?

Wrestling + Local Multiplayer

Only 5 developers shipped a Local Multiplayer Wrestling game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, WWE 2K25, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×8.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.1k against a market of $630. 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 16 announced, ×8.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wrestling + Local Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Wrestling + Local Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,090)
Top 25% $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631)
Top 5% $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 30
Announced 16
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wrestling
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Wrestling, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 16,384 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $1.1M, 1 in 20 over $7.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wrestling with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationPoor odds11 devs · median $11k · 21 announced
  2. + SportsPoor odds19 devs · median $4.5k · 33 announced
  3. + SimulationPoor odds15 devs · median $4.5k · 22 announced
  4. + CombatPoor odds12 devs · median $2.3k · 34 announced
  5. + 3D FighterPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  6. + Martial ArtsPoor odds15 devs · median $2.1k · 25 announced
  7. + ArcadePoor odds12 devs · median $1.8k · 22 announced
  8. + ActionPoor odds19 devs · median $1.5k · 46 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds7 devs · median $539 · 23 announced
  10. + StrategyPoor odds9 devs · median $300 · 19 announced
  11. + PhysicsDead5 devs · median $3.1k · 13 announced
  12. + FightingDead7 devs · median $2.1k · 4 announced

All 13 pairs on the Wrestling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
WWE 2K26 $69.99 2,310 56% 69k $4.9M (exactly $4,850,307) Visual Concepts
Fire Pro Wrestling World older $29.99 3,124 91% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,810,663) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Wrestling Empire older $19.99 3,036 94% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,689) MDickie
AEW: Fight Forever older $39.99 1,343 59% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,611,197) YUKE'S
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
A Gummy's Life older $19.99 194 81% 5.8k $116k (exactly $116,342) EP Games®
Checkmate Showdown older $19.99 192 80% 5.8k $115k (exactly $115,142) BadRez Games
Journey of Wrestling older $14.99 113 94% 3.4k $51k (exactly $50,816) Clean Bean Studios
Casual Pro Wrestling · EA older $14.99 67 80% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Patrick Dinklage
Brainrot Animals Fighting $1.99 35 71% 1.1k $2.1k (exactly $2,090) River Way Studios
Slap Master · EA $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Inkby.Sainz
Wrestling Trivia $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) LoadUpGames.com

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.