Do I ship it?

GamesWrestlingWrestling + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Wrestling game?

Wrestling + Martial Arts

Only 15 developers shipped a Martial-Arts Wrestling game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1812 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 25 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 25 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wrestling + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $2.2k → $17k → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wrestling + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,090)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,258)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 39
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wrestling
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Wrestling; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Dating Sim, Fighting
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime, Comic Book
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 2,471 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wrestling with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationPoor odds11 devs · median $11k · 21 announced
  2. + SportsPoor odds19 devs · median $4.5k · 33 announced
  3. + SimulationPoor odds15 devs · median $4.5k · 22 announced
  4. + CombatPoor odds12 devs · median $2.3k · 34 announced
  5. + 3D FighterPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  6. + ArcadePoor odds12 devs · median $1.8k · 22 announced
  7. + ActionPoor odds19 devs · median $1.5k · 46 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upPoor odds7 devs · median $539 · 23 announced
  9. + StrategyPoor odds9 devs · median $300 · 19 announced
  10. + PhysicsDead5 devs · median $3.1k · 13 announced
  11. + FightingDead7 devs · median $2.1k · 4 announced
  12. + Local MultiplayerDead5 devs · median $2.1k · 16 announced

All 13 pairs on the Wrestling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wrestling Empire older $19.99 3,036 94% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,689) MDickie
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
Final Vendetta older $24.99 381 81% 11k $286k (exactly $285,636) Bitmap Bureau
Infinite Lives $14.99 217 76% 6.5k $98k (exactly $97,585) MDickie
Something To Write About: Unbroken: Book One $13.99 201 90% 6.0k $84k (exactly $84,360) SeanchaiStudios
Pro Wrestling X · EA older $9.99 256 44% 7.7k $77k (exactly $76,723) Wrestling Gamers United
UPPERS older $14.99 155 78% 4.7k $70k (exactly $69,704) Bullets
MMA Team Manager older $29.99 56 33% 1.7k $50k (exactly $50,383) Alternative Software Ltd
Treachery in Beatdown City older $19.99 72 76% 2.2k $43k (exactly $43,178) NuChallenger, HurakanWorks
Sumotori Dreams Classic older $4.99 269 96% 8.1k $40k (exactly $40,269) Peter Soltesz
UnderGirl: Submission Path $7.99 72 73% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,258) KadoDev
Prop Sumo $9.99 13 84% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Barrel Roll Games
Going Over $14.99 5 80% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) Delinquent Productions
SLOWLY FIGHTER $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Bakumatsu Games
Brainrot Animals Fighting $1.99 35 71% 1.1k $2.1k (exactly $2,090) River Way Studios
FINAL FURY · EA $4.99 10 60% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Kluge Interactive
Little Fighters on Stream $3.99 9 88% 270 $1.1k (exactly $1,077) TEAM Black Hat Robot

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.