Do I ship it?

GamesWrestlingWrestling + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Wrestling game?

Wrestling + Arcade

Only 12 developers shipped an Arcade Wrestling game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1812 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 22 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 22 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wrestling + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $1.8k → $359 → $2.3k → $598 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wrestling + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,688)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 48
Announced 22
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wrestling
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Wrestling, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 2,058 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wrestling with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationPoor odds11 devs · median $11k · 21 announced
  2. + SportsPoor odds19 devs · median $4.5k · 33 announced
  3. + SimulationPoor odds15 devs · median $4.5k · 22 announced
  4. + CombatPoor odds12 devs · median $2.3k · 34 announced
  5. + 3D FighterPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  6. + Martial ArtsPoor odds15 devs · median $2.1k · 25 announced
  7. + ActionPoor odds19 devs · median $1.5k · 46 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upPoor odds7 devs · median $539 · 23 announced
  9. + StrategyPoor odds9 devs · median $300 · 19 announced
  10. + PhysicsDead5 devs · median $3.1k · 13 announced
  11. + FightingDead7 devs · median $2.1k · 4 announced
  12. + Local MultiplayerDead5 devs · median $2.1k · 16 announced

All 13 pairs on the Wrestling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
AEW: Fight Forever older $39.99 1,343 59% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,611,197) YUKE'S
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
Final Vendetta older $24.99 381 81% 11k $286k (exactly $285,636) Bitmap Bureau
RetroMania Wrestling older $19.99 243 80% 7.3k $146k (exactly $145,727) Retrosoft Studios
Kinky Fight Club older $19.99 107 78% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) Mr Z Games
Action Arcade Wrestling older $14.99 130 75% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) VICO Game Studio
Treachery in Beatdown City older $19.99 72 76% 2.2k $43k (exactly $43,178) NuChallenger, HurakanWorks
Kinky Fight Club 2 $20.00 36 91% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,600) Skyflare Studios, MrZGames
Cricket Through the Ages older $7.99 70 91% 2.1k $17k (exactly $16,779) Free Lives
Uchi No Heya! $9.99 39 100% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,688) James West
Just Dismantle $2.99 45 93% 1.4k $4.0k (exactly $4,037) Hubert Szwed
Last Eclipse $12.99 6 50% 180 $2.3k (exactly $2,338) Animas Games
A Ridiculous Waste of Time $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Ridiculous Games
FINAL FURY · EA $4.99 10 60% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Kluge Interactive
Little Fighters on Stream $3.99 9 88% 270 $1.1k (exactly $1,077) TEAM Black Hat Robot
Wrestling Classics: Olde Timey Pro Wrestling $3.99 5 60% 150 $598 (exactly $598) LunarCore Games
FURRY DO PORN $3.85 5 20% 150 $578 (exactly $578) FURRAI_XXX

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.