Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Sci-fi

Of 75 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 176 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1989 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 176 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 176 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 75
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $45k → $6.3k → $2.2k → $7.5k → $5.8k → $1.8k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 75
Bottom 30% $838 (exactly $838)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $39,398)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000)
Developers, 2 yr 75
Released games 256
Announced 176
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 20,771 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 7 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 176 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader older $49.99 33,701 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,541,390) Owlcat Games
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
Wasteland 3 older $39.99 17,263 84% 518k $21M (exactly $20,710,421) inXile Entertainment
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters older $44.99 11,426 76% 343k $15M (exactly $15,421,672) Complex Games
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS older $59.99 6,939 82% 208k $12M (exactly $12,488,118) TOM CREATE, 株式会社トムクリエイト
Super Robot Wars 30 older $59.99 5,608 85% 168k $10M (exactly $10,092,718) Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc.
Gears Tactics older $29.99 7,366 74% 221k $6.6M (exactly $6,627,190) Splash Damage, The Coalition
XCOM®: Chimera Squad older $9.99 20,602 71% 618k $6.2M (exactly $6,174,419) Firaxis Games
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II $39.99 2,088 53% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) Bulwark Studios
Stellar Tactics $24.99 1,666 77% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) Don Wilkins
Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered $59.99 289 83% 8.7k $520k (exactly $520,113) AQUAPLUS
Aether & Iron $24.99 521 84% 16k $391k (exactly $390,594) Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games
Every Day We Fight · EA $29.99 385 72% 12k $346k (exactly $346,384) Signal Space Lab
VARLET $59.99 121 47% 3.6k $218k (exactly $217,764) FURYU CORPORATION
Chaos Front $19.99 252 59% 7.6k $151k (exactly $151,124) Han Zhiyu
Defender's Quest 2: Mists of Ruin $19.99 242 61% 7.3k $145k (exactly $145,127) Level Up Labs, LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.