Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Walking Simulator
Should I ship a Walking Simulator Sandbox?
Sandbox + Walking Simulator
Of 101 developers who shipped a Walking Simulator Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 143 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×281 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 143 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) |
| Top 25% | $8.1k (exactly $8,095) |
| Top 5% | $177k (exactly $176,523) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 101 |
| Released games | 324 |
| Announced | 143 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Walking Simulator
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Walking Simulator; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Simulation
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 12,919 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 47 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 143 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ 2017 · $102M 
The Isle 2015 · EA · $67M 
The Long Dark 2017 · $66M 
Miscreated 2018 · $21M 
LEGO® Worlds 2017 · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | theHunter: Call of the Wild™ | older | $19.99 | 170,472 89% | 5.1M | $102M (exactly $102,232,058) | Expansive Worlds |
| | The Isle | · EA older | $19.99 | 111,397 80% | 3.3M | $67M (exactly $66,804,781) | Afterthought LLC |
| | The Long Dark | older | $19.99 | 110,264 89% | 3.3M | $66M (exactly $66,125,321) | Hinterland Studio Inc. |
| | Miscreated | older | $29.99 | 23,050 66% | 692k | $21M (exactly $20,738,085) | Entrada Interactive LLC |
| | LEGO® Worlds | older | $29.99 | 12,487 77% | 375k | $11M (exactly $11,234,554) | TT Games, Traveller's Tales |
 | Viscera Cleanup Detail | older | $12.99 | 18,053 92% | 542k | $7.0M (exactly $7,035,254) | RuneStorm |
 | Cube World | older | $19.99 | 9,885 42% | 297k | $5.9M (exactly $5,928,034) | Picroma |
 | Streamer Life Simulator | older | $19.99 | 7,066 77% | 212k | $4.2M (exactly $4,237,480) | Cheesecake Dev |
 | Longvinter | $19.99 | 6,951 68% | 209k | $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) | Uuvana Studios | |
 | Thief Simulator 2 | older | $19.99 | 6,568 87% | 197k | $3.9M (exactly $3,938,830) | CookieDev, Ultimate Games S.A. |
 | despelote | $14.99 | 1,011 95% | 30k | $455k (exactly $454,647) | Julián Cordero, Sebastian Valbuena | |
 | Adorable Adventures | $19.99 | 698 93% | 21k | $419k (exactly $418,591) | Wild Sheep Studio | |
 | 沙雕之路 | $10.00 | 1,039 96% | 31k | $312k (exactly $311,700) | 馆叔 | |
 | TRADESMAN: Deal to Dealer | $4.99 | 1,528 78% | 46k | $229k (exactly $228,742) | AZAMATIKA | |
 | The Backrooms 1998 - Found Footage Survival Horror Game | $9.99 | 589 80% | 18k | $177k (exactly $176,523) | Steelkrill Studio | |
 | Corner Kitchen Fast Food Simulator | $13.99 | 411 85% | 12k | $172k (exactly $172,497) | Purple Heads Games | |
 | GlitchSPANKR | $19.99 | 275 96% | 8.3k | $165k (exactly $164,918) | Mahelyk, TheClassifiedX | |
 | A Merchant's Promise | · EA | $14.99 | 300 86% | 9.0k | $135k (exactly $134,910) | Game Draft Studio |
 | Road Maintenance Simulator 2 - Winter Services | $24.99 | 117 49% | 3.5k | $88k (exactly $87,715) | Caipirinha Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.