Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Tactics Sandbox?

Sandbox + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 70 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Tactics Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1989 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 106 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 106 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $2.5k → $22k → $54k → $7.7k → $8.8k → $7.9k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $54,315)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 204
Announced 106
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Turn-Based Tactics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Combat, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 33,586 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $7.8k, 1 in 4 over $54k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era 2026 · EA · $23M Dorfromantik 2022 · $12M Your Only Move Is HUSTLE 2023 · $5.8M Empire of Sin 2020 · $5.5M The Matchless Kungfu 2024 · $4.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Dorfromantik older $13.99 27,441 96% 823k $12M (exactly $11,516,988) Toukana Interactive
Your Only Move Is HUSTLE older $4.99 38,703 96% 1.2M $5.8M (exactly $5,793,839) Ivy Sly
Empire of Sin older $39.99 4,544 49% 136k $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) Romero Games
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
江湖十一 older $17.99 5,385 42% 162k $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) 万象皆春
Blackthorn Arena older $24.99 3,477 69% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) PersonaeGame Studio
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
Stellar Tactics $24.99 1,666 77% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) Don Wilkins
Destiny of Immortal · EA $11.99 1,763 80% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) LeiYun Games
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit
Preserve $12.49 690 92% 21k $259k (exactly $258,543) Bitmap Galaxy
The Monster Breeder $29.99 272 91% 8.2k $245k (exactly $244,718) Fantasy Creations
Dead Weight $12.99 575 82% 17k $224k (exactly $224,078) Klukva Games
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.