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Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy Sandbox?
Sandbox + Turn-Based Strategy
Of 79 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Strategy Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 128 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $7.0k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $780; 1 in 20 cleared $4.0M, ×6451 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 128 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $779 (exactly $779) |
|---|---|
| Median | $7.0k (exactly $7,008) |
| Top 25% | $109k (exactly $109,145) |
| Top 5% | $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 79 |
| Released games | 255 |
| Announced | 128 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $10.89 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Turn-Based Strategy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Management
- Price point
- $10.89 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.89.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 54,817 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $780. 6 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 128 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS 2019 · $76M 
Wartales 2023 · $34M 
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era 2026 · EA · $23M 
ENDLESS Space™ 2 2017 · $21M 
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition 2006 · $16M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Total War: THREE KINGDOMS | older | $39.99 | 63,110 82% | 1.9M | $76M (exactly $75,713,067) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Wartales | older | $34.99 | 32,118 86% | 964k | $34M (exactly $33,714,265) | Shiro Games |
| | Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era | · EA | $39.99 | 19,251 86% | 578k | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) | Unfrozen |
| | ENDLESS Space™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 17,280 83% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,730,816) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition | older | $19.99 | 27,319 95% | 820k | $16M (exactly $16,383,204) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
 | ENDLESS Legend™ | older | $29.99 | 14,413 83% | 432k | $13M (exactly $12,967,376) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion | older | $17.99 | 22,287 84% | 669k | $12M (exactly $12,028,294) | 半瓶醋工作室（Half Amateur Studio） |
 | Dorfromantik | older | $13.99 | 27,441 96% | 823k | $12M (exactly $11,516,988) | Toukana Interactive |
 | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
 | Steel Division 2 | older | $39.99 | 8,061 79% | 242k | $9.7M (exactly $9,670,782) | Eugen Systems |
 | 龙胤立志传 | $19.99 | 7,153 77% | 215k | $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) | TPP Studio | |
 | The Matchless Kungfu | $19.99 | 6,755 79% | 203k | $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) | HuanMos Game | |
 | ENDLESS Legend™ 2 | · EA | $49.99 | 2,476 83% | 74k | $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | ZEPHON | $39.99 | 1,838 83% | 55k | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) | Proxy Studios | |
 | Ascension | · EA | $19.99 | 2,437 60% | 73k | $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) | Element Game 微元游戏 |
 | Ballionaire | $12.34 | 2,398 85% | 72k | $888k (exactly $887,740) | newobject | |
 | Age of History 2: Definitive Edition | $9.99 | 2,600 83% | 78k | $779k (exactly $779,220) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | Heroes of Science and Fiction | $29.99 | 852 89% | 26k | $767k (exactly $766,544) | Oxymoron Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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