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Should I ship a Tower Defense Sandbox?
Sandbox + Tower Defense
Of 67 developers who shipped a Tower Defense Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 125 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.7k, ×9.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2034 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 125 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $628 (exactly $628) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.7k (exactly $5,694) |
| Top 25% | $237k (exactly $236,995) |
| Top 5% | $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 67 |
| Released games | 207 |
| Announced | 125 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Tower Defense
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Tower Defense; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Base Building, Strategy
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 33,609 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 6 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 125 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M 
Bloons TD 6 2018 · $147M 
The Riftbreaker 2021 · $20M 
Night of the Dead 2024 · $9.3M 
Craft The World 2014 · $8.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
| | Bloons TD 6 | older | $13.99 | 349,859 97% | 10M | $147M (exactly $146,835,822) | Ninja Kiwi |
| | The Riftbreaker | older | $29.99 | 22,127 90% | 664k | $20M (exactly $19,907,662) | EXOR Studios |
| | Night of the Dead | older | $29.99 | 10,380 77% | 311k | $9.3M (exactly $9,338,886) | Jackto Studios |
| | Craft The World | older | $18.99 | 15,074 88% | 452k | $8.6M (exactly $8,587,658) | Dekovir Entertainment, Sibear Games |
 | Cultivation Tales | older | $19.99 | 12,560 38% | 377k | $7.5M (exactly $7,532,232) | Ac Games |
 | Mindustry | older | $9.99 | 24,608 95% | 738k | $7.4M (exactly $7,375,018) | AnukenDev |
 | Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition | $19.99 | 10,627 92% | 319k | $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) | Firefly Studios | |
 | The Front | $19.99 | 9,555 66% | 287k | $5.7M (exactly $5,730,134) | Samar Studio | |
 | Stronghold Crusader HD (2012) | older | $9.99 | 17,564 97% | 527k | $5.3M (exactly $5,263,931) | Firefly Studios |
 | Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim | $24.90 | 2,938 77% | 88k | $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) | Rockbee Team | |
 | Drill Core | $19.99 | 2,130 84% | 64k | $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) | Hungry Couch Games | |
 | Dread Dawn | $19.99 | 2,113 71% | 63k | $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) | Kioop | |
 | The Spotter: Dig or Die | $12.99 | 1,792 84% | 54k | $698k (exactly $698,342) | Puppyroar Games | |
 | Gold Gold Adventure Gold | $24.99 | 907 70% | 27k | $680k (exactly $679,978) | Can Can Can a Man | |
 | Dungeon Tycoon | $14.99 | 1,472 78% | 44k | $662k (exactly $661,958) | Lunheim Studios | |
 | Tower Factory | · EA | $14.99 | 1,220 89% | 37k | $549k (exactly $548,634) | Gius Caminiti |
 | Creeper World IXE | $19.99 | 855 69% | 26k | $513k (exactly $512,743) | Knuckle Cracker |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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