Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Sandbox?

Sandbox + Top-Down Shooter

Of 39 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 76 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2337 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 76 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 76 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $240 → $1.7M → $150 → $270 → $538 → $4.7k → $359 (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $3.7k (exactly $3,742)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 105
Announced 76
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Top-Down Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 11,618 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 76 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Foxhole 2022 · $43M The Precinct 2025 · $7.1M RUNNING WITH RIFLES 2015 · $6.6M Star Valor 2022 · $2.5M Wizard with a Gun 2023 · $2.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
RUNNING WITH RIFLES older $14.99 14,676 87% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Osumia Games
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
Wizard with a Gun older $24.99 2,932 80% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,198,120) Galvanic Games
Black Skylands older $19.99 2,849 82% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,708,545) Hungry Couch Games
Suit for Hire $14.99 3,263 92% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371) Godmode Interactive
American Fugitive older $19.99 1,966 77% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,179,010) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Rustler (Grand Theft Horse) older $24.99 1,227 78% 37k $920k (exactly $919,882) Jutsu Games
Colt Canyon older $14.99 1,543 90% 46k $694k (exactly $693,887) Retrific
No Escape from Madness $11.99 197 60% 5.9k $71k (exactly $70,861) qiqin
Artificial Extinction 2 $19.99 113 77% 3.4k $68k (exactly $67,766) 100Hr Games Inc
Warspace 2 $17.99 83 59% 2.5k $45k (exactly $44,795) Magic Game Art
MagicCar of Delicious $9.99 26 76% 780 $7.8k (exactly $7,792) YINGGUO GAME
Sand: A Superfluous Game $9.99 24 83% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Voided Pixels Studio
AstroPlanet $3.99 39 64% 1.2k $4.7k (exactly $4,668) VIVA
Brawl Squad X: Battle Arena $13.99 11 81% 330 $4.6k (exactly $4,617) Army Troop Studios
NUMANUIN $4.99 25 92% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) Siberian Mouse

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.