Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation Sandbox?

Sandbox + Time Manipulation

Of 21 developers who shipped a Time Manipulation Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $570; 1 in 20 cleared $34k, ×56 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 42 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 42 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $15k → $3.7k → $809 → $2.4k → $598 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $564 (exactly $564)
Median $809 (exactly $809)
Top 25% $3.7k (exactly $3,748)
Top 5% $35k (exactly $34,862)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 56
Announced 42
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Time Manipulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, Exploration, Open World
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 2,237 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $570, median $810, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $34k.

3 in 10 developers made under $570. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hotel Architect $29.99 1,934 94% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,740,020) Pathos Interactive
No Time · EA older $12.99 2,117 97% 64k $825k (exactly $824,995) Lost in Days Studio
SeaOrama: World of Shipping older $19.99 382 58% 11k $229k (exactly $229,085) Hidden Tower, SeaOrama
Train World older $34.99 85 75% 2.6k $89k (exactly $89,224) Turn Point Games
Hotel Giant 2 older $7.99 268 47% 8.0k $64k (exactly $64,240) Enlight Software Limited, PerspectX
Destructive Physics - Destruction Simulator older $19.99 87 78% 2.6k $52k (exactly $52,174) KreizLand Games
Time To Stop Time older $9.99 161 71% 4.8k $48k (exactly $48,252) Sicarius
Cube Land Arena older $4.99 279 66% 8.4k $42k (exactly $41,766) Jaison Robson Gusava, SC Jogos
Unaware in The City $5.99 194 81% 5.8k $35k (exactly $34,862) Mr. Unaware Studios
Mobiles Tycoon older $5.99 177 83% 5.3k $32k (exactly $31,807) Insignis Games
Typhon: Bot vs Bot · EA $19.99 12 75% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) Brightshade Games
Duck Paradox $9.99 19 100% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Magic Games
Paradox Guardians · EA $12.99 13 38% 390 $5.1k (exactly $5,066) Paraguard
Macht: Cosmic Engine · EA $24.99 5 80% 150 $3.7k (exactly $3,748) Kestro Games
Arcade Empire Tycoon $4.99 25 68% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) Mind Inside Games
Wild Script: Nature · EA $4.99 16 93% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Surdarium
Chat Ragdoll Racing · EA $4.99 13 100% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Scuffed Gamedev, Samuli Salonen, Marcus… (Scuffed Gamedev, Samuli Salonen, Marcus Rose)
Destructive Contraptions $7.99 6 83% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Gamergetik

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.