Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Time Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Management Sandbox?

Sandbox + Time Management

Of 259 developers who shipped a Time Management Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 367 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.0k, ×8.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1146 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 367 games are announced against 168 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 367 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Time Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 259
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $12k → $18k → $7.8k → $9.3k → $7.8k → $5.3k (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Time Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 259
Bottom 30% $900 (exactly $900)
Median $5.0k (exactly $5,033)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $40,923)
Top 5% $720k (exactly $719,960)
Developers, 2 yr 259
Released games 512
Announced 367
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Time Management
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Time Management; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Resource Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 66,690 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.0k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 103 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 367 games are announced against 168 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Youtubers Life older $19.99 13,748 77% 412k $8.2M (exactly $8,244,676) UPLAY Online
Parkitect older $29.99 6,809 94% 204k $6.1M (exactly $6,126,057) Texel Raptor
Software Inc. · EA older $22.99 7,576 94% 227k $5.2M (exactly $5,225,167) Coredumping
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
Dead Rising Deluxe Remaster $49.99 2,971 80% 89k $4.5M (exactly $4,455,609) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
112 Operator older $24.99 5,688 88% 171k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,294) Jutsu Games
The Tenants older $19.99 7,071 79% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,240,479) EndGameLoop Games
Kebab Chefs! - Restaurant Simulator $17.99 7,019 83% 211k $3.8M (exactly $3,788,154) Biotech Gameworks
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
News Tower $24.99 4,316 94% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,705) Sparrow Night
gogh: Focus with Your Avatar $11.99 4,811 91% 144k $1.7M (exactly $1,730,517) ambr
Matchmaking Inc. $8.99 5,773 87% 173k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) Wave Games
Recycling Center Simulator $19.99 2,594 84% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,555,622) Balas Games
Global Rescue · EA $24.99 1,864 86% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,441) PeDePe GbR

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.