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Should I ship a Survival Horror Sandbox?
Sandbox + Survival Horror
Of 63 developers who shipped a Survival Horror Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 152 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.7k, ×9.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×5656 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 152 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.3k (exactly $1,347) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.7k (exactly $5,694) |
| Top 25% | $71k (exactly $70,861) |
| Top 5% | $3.6M (exactly $3,552,099) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 63 |
| Released games | 231 |
| Announced | 152 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Survival Horror
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Survival Horror; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Open World, Exploration
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 154,728 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 8 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 152 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | The Forest | older | $19.99 | 581,431 95% | 17M | $349M (exactly $348,684,171) | Endnight Games Ltd |
| | Subnautica | older | $29.99 | 341,390 97% | 10M | $307M (exactly $307,148,583) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Project Zomboid | · EA older | $24.99 | 364,830 94% | 11M | $274M (exactly $273,513,051) | The Indie Stone |
| | Sons Of The Forest | older | $29.99 | 284,572 88% | 8.5M | $256M (exactly $256,029,428) | Endnight Games Ltd |
| | Don't Starve Together | older | $14.99 | 376,165 94% | 11M | $169M (exactly $169,161,400) | Klei Entertainment |
| | Subnautica 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 116,852 91% | 3.5M | $105M (exactly $105,131,744) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Subnautica: Below Zero | older | $29.99 | 99,384 90% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $89,415,785) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | The Long Dark | older | $19.99 | 110,264 89% | 3.3M | $66M (exactly $66,125,321) | Hinterland Studio Inc. |
| | Green Hell | older | $24.99 | 79,392 84% | 2.4M | $60M (exactly $59,520,182) | Creepy Jar |
| | VEIN | · EA | $19.99 | 11,539 87% | 346k | $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) | Ramjet Studios |
| | HumanitZ | $19.99 | 11,155 74% | 335k | $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) | Yodubzz Studios | |
| | No One Survived | $16.99 | 6,969 64% | 209k | $3.6M (exactly $3,552,099) | Cat Play Studio | |
| | Project Silverfish | · EA | $29.99 | 3,138 93% | 94k | $2.8M (exactly $2,823,259) | Siris Pendrake |
| | IfSunSets | · EA | $19.99 | 2,284 74% | 69k | $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) | POLYMORPH |
| | Animal Company | · EA | $19.99 | 749 86% | 22k | $449k (exactly $449,175) | Wooster Games |
| | Outbreak Island | · EA | $14.99 | 955 78% | 29k | $429k (exactly $429,464) | Tiny Magicians |
| | Winter Survival | $18.99 | 595 62% | 18k | $339k (exactly $338,972) | DRAGO entertainment | |
| | CleanFall | · EA | $19.99 | 492 92% | 15k | $295k (exactly $295,052) | Humanyoyo |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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