Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Sandbox?

Sandbox + Supernatural

Only 18 developers shipped a Supernatural Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Worshippers of Cthulhu, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $970k, ×1558 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 47 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 47 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.1k → $2.2k → $2.3k → $587k → $1.3k → $478 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $809 (exactly $809)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 25% $45k (exactly $45,420)
Top 5% $978k (exactly $978,358)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 45
Announced 47
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Building, Exploration
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 3,458 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $45k, 1 in 20 over $970k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 4 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Amnesia: The Bunker older $24.99 10,349 93% 310k $7.8M (exactly $7,758,645) Frictional Games
Worshippers of Cthulhu $24.99 1,305 80% 39k $978k (exactly $978,358) Crazy Goat Games
Shattered Minds · EA $12.99 1,507 91% 45k $587k (exactly $587,278) eXtasy Games
Haunt the House: Terrortown older $4.99 2,199 87% 66k $329k (exactly $329,190) SFB Games
Ghost Master® older $4.99 1,722 89% 52k $258k (exactly $257,783) Sick Puppies
Conrad Stevenson's Paranormal P.I. older $9.99 860 93% 26k $258k (exactly $257,742) D&A Studios
Creature Lab older $19.99 343 51% 10k $206k (exactly $205,697) Image Power S.A.
Haunted House Renovator $19.99 197 45% 5.9k $118k (exactly $118,141) Image Power S.A.
The Herbalist older $5.99 648 93% 19k $116k (exactly $116,446) Moonworks
ANGST: A TALE OF SURVIVAL $7.99 227 86% 6.8k $54k (exactly $54,412) Cherrypick Games
Among The Whispers - Provocation $14.99 101 79% 3.0k $45k (exactly $45,420) D&A Studios
SCP $9.99 24 37% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Molance Games
OurLife $4.99 41 78% 1.2k $6.1k (exactly $6,138) WaveyGaming Productions
Paranormal Practice · EA $11.99 16 43% 480 $5.8k (exactly $5,755) JUST1GUY
Acatalepsy · EA $7.99 13 61% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) Heavy_Tankr
SHAWA $3.00 27 70% 810 $2.4k (exactly $2,430) ObeZZZanDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.