Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Steampunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Steampunk Sandbox?

Sandbox + Steampunk

Only 8 developers shipped a Steampunk Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dead Weight, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×8.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $52k, ×82 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×357 the market median. Revenue is up 335% on the market; 41 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 82.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 335% on the market, 41 announced, ×8.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Steampunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sandbox + Steampunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $6.0k (exactly $5,998)
Median $52k (exactly $51,782)
Top 25% $137k (exactly $137,158)
Top 5% $224k (exactly $224,078)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 51
Announced 41
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 335% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Steampunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 35,490 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.0k, median $52k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.0k. 41 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Volcanoids · EA older $19.99 7,679 83% 230k $4.6M (exactly $4,605,096) Volcanoid
Opus Magnum older $19.99 5,964 97% 179k $3.6M (exactly $3,576,611) Zachtronics
Railroader · EA older $29.99 3,343 96% 100k $3.0M (exactly $3,007,697) Giraffe Lab LLC
SteamWorld Dig older $9.99 6,509 94% 195k $2.0M (exactly $1,950,747) Image & Form Games
Sir, You Are Being Hunted older $19.99 2,875 79% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) Big Robot Ltd
Black Skylands older $19.99 2,849 82% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,708,545) Hungry Couch Games
Airborne Kingdom older $24.99 2,104 86% 63k $1.6M (exactly $1,577,369) The Wandering Band LLC
SteamWorld Build older $24.99 1,884 83% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,412,435) The Station
Bulwark: Falconeer Chronicles older $19.99 1,381 85% 41k $828k (exactly $828,186) Tomas Sala
Airship: Kingdoms Adrift older $29.99 902 75% 27k $812k (exactly $811,529) Revolution Industry
Dead Weight $12.99 575 82% 17k $224k (exactly $224,078) Klukva Games
Steel Artery: Train City Builder $14.99 305 71% 9.2k $137k (exactly $137,158) SoulAge23
Super Mining Mechs $4.99 841 86% 25k $126k (exactly $125,898) Delayed Victory
ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles · EA $8.99 192 96% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Tomas Sala
The Fool's Apprentice $16.99 42 52% 1.3k $21k (exactly $21,407) The Planar Danse
Wings of Aviora · EA $24.99 8 87% 240 $6.0k (exactly $5,998) Stormy XP
Steampunk Idle Spinner $4.99 5 80% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Airapport
Endless Vine · EA $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Circuit Root

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.