Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Split Screen

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Split Screen Sandbox?

Sandbox + Split Screen

Only 17 developers shipped a Split Screen Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Wobbly Life, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×6.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $24M, ×39436 the market median. Revenue is up 1095% on the market; 30 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 1095% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Split Screen
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.8k → $432k → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Split Screen: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,047)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $30,441)
Top 5% $25M (exactly $24,765,590)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 56
Announced 30
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1095% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Split Screen
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Split Screen; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Co-op
Price point
$13.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Family Friendly, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 44,836 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $24M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
Wobbly Life $24.99 33,034 97% 991k $25M (exactly $24,765,590) RubberBandGames
The Escapists 2 older $19.99 26,452 90% 794k $16M (exactly $15,863,264) Team17, Mouldy Toof Studios
LEGO® Marvel™ Super Heroes older $19.99 22,663 95% 680k $14M (exactly $13,591,001) Traveller's Tales
Hydroneer older $14.99 27,131 85% 814k $12M (exactly $12,200,811) Foulball Hangover
PowerWash Simulator 2 $24.99 10,939 91% 328k $8.2M (exactly $8,200,968) FuturLab
Who's Your Daddy?! older $9.99 25,797 80% 774k $7.7M (exactly $7,731,361) Evil Tortilla Games
Amazing Frog? · EA older $19.99 11,169 94% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,698,049) Fayju
HOT WHEELS UNLEASHED™ older $29.99 5,427 81% 163k $4.9M (exactly $4,882,672) Milestone S.r.l.
LEGO® Batman™ 3: Beyond Gotham older $19.99 7,521 88% 226k $4.5M (exactly $4,510,344) TT Games Ltd
Wreckreation $39.99 360 63% 11k $432k (exactly $431,892) Three Fields Entertainment
ReCharge RC: High Voltage · EA $13.99 393 95% 12k $165k (exactly $164,942) Hondune Games
3D Train Studio V9 $34.99 29 82% 870 $30k (exactly $30,441) Stefan Werner
Pawbay: Cat Chaos $19.99 20 70% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) COMMANDO PANDA
Chaos on Wheels $9.99 34 67% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Acodeon Development
Ultimate Blacksmith Tycoon ~The Appraiser-Shopkeeper Conquers the Blacksmith Trade~ · EA $14.99 15 80% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Quench Forge
Marble Champions $14.99 9 66% 270 $4.0k (exactly $4,047) Luc Versleijen, Neonchimp Games
AI PAINTER: Painting Simulator $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Magic Cat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.