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Should I ship a Space Sim Sandbox?
Sandbox + Space Sim
Of 86 developers who shipped a Space Sim Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 213 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2996 the market median. Revenue is up 230% on the market; 213 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $809 (exactly $809) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.6k (exactly $4,613) |
| Top 25% | $40k (exactly $39,734) |
| Top 5% | $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 86 |
| Released games | 280 |
| Announced | 213 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 230% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Space Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Building
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 33,653 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $810. 8 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 213 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M 
Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M 
Oxygen Not Included 2019 · $101M 
Space Engineers 2019 · $60M 
Dyson Sphere Program 2021 · EA · $50M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | No Man's Sky | older | $59.99 | 315,054 83% | 9.5M | $567M (exactly $567,002,684) | Hello Games |
| | Kerbal Space Program | older | $39.99 | 120,656 95% | 3.6M | $145M (exactly $144,751,003) | Squad |
| | Oxygen Not Included | older | $24.99 | 135,337 96% | 4.1M | $101M (exactly $101,462,149) | Klei Entertainment |
| | Space Engineers | older | $19.99 | 100,533 89% | 3.0M | $60M (exactly $60,289,640) | Keen Software House |
| | Dyson Sphere Program | · EA older | $19.99 | 83,523 97% | 2.5M | $50M (exactly $50,088,743) | Youthcat Studio |
 | Elite Dangerous | older | $19.99 | 82,399 76% | 2.5M | $49M (exactly $49,414,680) | Frontier Developments |
 | Kerbal Space Program 2 | · EA older | $49.99 | 27,930 26% | 838k | $42M (exactly $41,886,621) | Intercept Games |
 | X4: Foundations | older | $49.99 | 25,257 79% | 758k | $38M (exactly $37,877,923) | Egosoft |
 | Universe Sandbox | · EA older | $29.99 | 27,843 96% | 835k | $25M (exactly $25,050,347) | Giant Army |
 | Hardspace: Shipbreaker | older | $34.99 | 19,431 89% | 583k | $20M (exactly $20,396,721) | Blackbird Interactive |
 | Space Haven | $24.99 | 10,267 85% | 308k | $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) | Bugbyte Ltd. | |
 | Space Engineers 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 5,095 74% | 153k | $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) | Keen Software House |
 | SpaceCraft | · EA | $29.99 | 2,616 64% | 78k | $2.4M (exactly $2,353,615) | Shiro Games |
 | Mars First Logistics | $19.99 | 3,497 94% | 105k | $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) | Shape Shop | |
 | Ostranauts | $19.99 | 3,137 77% | 94k | $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) | Blue Bottle Games | |
 | Starminer | · EA | $29.99 | 1,818 72% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) | CoolAndGoodGames |
 | Astro Colony | $19.99 | 2,397 80% | 72k | $1.4M (exactly $1,437,481) | Terad Games | |
 | ERA ONE | · EA | $29.99 | 1,575 86% | 47k | $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028) | Team Complex LTD |
 | The Last Starship | $19.99 | 1,623 75% | 49k | $973k (exactly $973,313) | Introversion Software | |
 | Farlands | $17.99 | 1,628 89% | 49k | $879k (exactly $878,632) | JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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