Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Simulation
Should I ship a Simulation Sandbox?
Sandbox + Simulation
Of 1,675 developers who shipped a Simulation Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,168 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.1k, ×9.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $990; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2987 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 3,168 games are announced against 1,085 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $987 (exactly $987) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.1k (exactly $6,105) |
| Top 25% | $75k (exactly $75,225) |
| Top 5% | $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 1,675 |
| Released games | 4,705 |
| Announced | 3,168 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Management, Strategy
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 620,047 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $990. 6 in 10 of the 753 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,168 games are announced against 1,085 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
Rust 2018 · $1.4B 
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M 
Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M 
Stardew Valley 2016 · $402M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Rust | older | $39.99 | 1,167,920 87% | 35M | $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) | Facepunch Studios |
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | No Man's Sky | older | $59.99 | 315,054 83% | 9.5M | $567M (exactly $567,002,684) | Hello Games |
| | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Stardew Valley | older | $14.99 | 894,201 98% | 27M | $402M (exactly $402,122,190) | ConcernedApe |
 | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
 | The Forest | older | $19.99 | 581,431 95% | 17M | $349M (exactly $348,684,171) | Endnight Games Ltd |
 | Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord | older | $49.99 | 230,490 87% | 6.9M | $346M (exactly $345,665,853) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
 | Garry's Mod | older | $9.99 | 1,093,131 96% | 33M | $328M (exactly $327,611,361) | Facepunch Studios |
 | BeamNG.drive | · EA older | $24.99 | 388,236 97% | 12M | $291M (exactly $291,060,529) | BeamNG |
 | Forza Horizon 6 | $69.99 | 86,730 82% | 2.6M | $182M (exactly $182,106,981) | Playground Games | |
 | Scrap Mechanic | $28.99 | 109,429 92% | 3.3M | $95M (exactly $95,170,401) | Axolot Games | |
 | The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome | $29.99 | 56,535 65% | 1.7M | $51M (exactly $50,864,540) | ConchShip Games | |
 | My Summer Car | $14.99 | 108,503 94% | 3.3M | $49M (exactly $48,793,799) | Amistech Games | |
 | Supermarket Simulator | $19.99 | 79,236 92% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,517,829) | Nokta Games | |
 | Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 | $69.99 | 21,633 59% | 649k | $45M (exactly $45,422,810) | Asobo Studio | |
 | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
 | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
 | inZOI | · EA | $39.99 | 30,020 77% | 901k | $36M (exactly $36,014,994) | inZOI Studio |
 | TCG Card Shop Simulator | $19.99 | 47,357 96% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,399,993) | OPNeon Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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