Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Shop Keeper

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shop Keeper Sandbox?

Sandbox + Shop Keeper

Of 137 developers who shipped a Shop Keeper Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 226 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1143 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 226 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 226 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Shop Keeper
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 137
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $142k → $89k → $7.3k → $2.6k (still earning) → $7.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Shop Keeper: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 137
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,556)
Median $7.8k (exactly $7,792)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $54,315)
Top 5% $718k (exactly $717,631)
Developers, 2 yr 137
Released games 182
Announced 226
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 370% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Shop Keeper; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 68,700 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.6k, median $7.8k, 1 in 4 over $54k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. 3 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 226 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Grocery Store Simulator $14.99 5,337 90% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,400,049) EXPERIMENT ONE
King of Retail older $25.99 2,982 88% 89k $2.3M (exactly $2,325,065) Freaking Games
Tavern Manager Simulator 🍻 older $14.99 4,018 91% 121k $1.8M (exactly $1,806,895) One More Time
Roadside Research · EA $14.99 3,991 85% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,794,753) Cybernetic Walrus
Drag'n Wash $14.99 2,880 96% 86k $1.3M (exactly $1,295,136) Gator Dragon Games
Teddy's Haven · EA $14.99 2,800 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160) Teddy Bear Games LLC
Another Brick in The Mall older $16.99 2,340 83% 70k $1.2M (exactly $1,192,698) The Quadsphere
Megastore Simulator · EA $13.99 1,968 93% 59k $826k (exactly $825,970) Yolo Games Studio
Motel Manager Simulator older $17.99 1,475 84% 44k $796k (exactly $796,057) Denzone Games
Bookshop Simulator $15.99 1,496 92% 45k $718k (exactly $717,631) Blep Games
Better Mart Simulator $14.99 1,238 89% 37k $557k (exactly $556,729) Exanticx Studio
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.
Blood Bar Tycoon $19.99 773 79% 23k $464k (exactly $463,568) Clever Trickster Studio, Clever Trickst… (Clever Trickster Studio, Clever Trickster Productions)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.