Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up Sandbox?

Sandbox + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 29 developers who shipped a Shoot 'Em Up Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 39 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 55% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 39 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $416 → $18k → $958 → $1.1k → $179 → $959 → $148 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $959 (exactly $959)
Top 5% $641k (exactly $641,482)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 112
Announced 39
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Shoot 'Em Up; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 59% positive over 2,482 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $950, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. Nearly all of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Crysis 2 Remastered 2022 · $8.1M Crysis 3 Remastered 2022 · $7.0M POSTAL 4: No Regerts 2022 · $6.5M Saints Row®: The Third™ Remastered 2021 · $3.6M HARD BULLET 2020 · EA · $3.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crysis 2 Remastered older $29.99 9,034 89% 271k $8.1M (exactly $8,127,890) Crytek, Saber Interactive
Crysis 3 Remastered older $29.99 7,731 88% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,581) Crytek, Saber Interactive
POSTAL 4: No Regerts older $19.99 10,855 67% 326k $6.5M (exactly $6,509,743) Running With Scissors
Saints Row®: The Third™ Remastered older $29.99 3,968 73% 119k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,010) Deep Silver Volition, Sperasoft
HARD BULLET · EA older $19.99 5,860 83% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,514,242) GexagonVR
Squirrel with a Gun older $19.99 3,112 86% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,266) Dee Dee Creations LLC
Kill It With Fire older $12.99 4,036 95% 121k $1.6M (exactly $1,572,829) Casey Donnellan Games LLC
Beyond Sandbox · EA $19.99 1,223 39% 37k $733k (exactly $733,433) Atlas XR
Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer $18.99 1,126 78% 34k $641k (exactly $641,482) Runner Duck
Disassembly 3D older $29.99 309 81% 9.3k $278k (exactly $278,007) Khor Chin Heong
Chaos on Wheels $9.99 34 67% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Acodeon Development
Zombie Liminal Fishing $13.99 21 85% 630 $8.8k (exactly $8,814) Chris Danelon
Retronika $14.99 13 84% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) 4Players-Studio
Duck Paradox $9.99 19 100% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Magic Games
NUMANUIN $4.99 25 92% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) Siberian Mouse
Armed Animals RPG $15.99 2 100% 60 $959 (exactly $959) Strejda Jenda Productions
Idle Shooter $5.99 5 40% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Tickle Games
Chicken Strike®: Cluck Ops™ $1.99 14 42% 420 $836 (exactly $836) Bamboléo Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.